Jan 25th, 2010 | Økonomi | 4 Comments
Denne artikkel er et tilsvar til professor Arne John Isachsen’s artikkel “På tide med en ny revolusjon?” som står publisert på Minerva:
http://www.minerva.as/2010/01/25/pa-tide-med-en-ny-revolusjon/comment-page-1/#comment-9577
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Arne Jon Isachsen viser i denne artikkelen at han er en del av problemet, ikke en del av løsningen på finanskrisen.
Denne hyllest av Statens aktive rolle, av Keynes, Bernanke, Obama viser at Isachsen støtter den styrte økonomien, ikke den frie økonomien. En økonomi styrt og overtatt av mennesker med blind tiltro til sterkere institusjonelle tvangstrøyer over menneskers ønske om å selv velge fritt.
Isachsen er en del av det etablerte maktapparatet, en gruppe mennesker som utnevner hverandre til all opposisjon er vasket bort i den offisielle versjonen av finanskrisens årsaker.
“Keynes lever” ropte Jens Stoltenberg under finanskrisen. Nå stemmer Isachsen i. Maktmenneskene står samlet, “ingen kunne forutse dette” gråter de sammen.
http://www.dn.no/valg/article1725904.ece
Men, finanskrisen kom ikke “kastende som lyn fra klar himmel” på alle.
En rekke økonomer advarte mot krisen som måtte komme fra den lette pengepolitikk som ble ført i årene før krisen (ja i en hel generasjon før krisen). Ludwig von Mises viste på sammenhengen allerede i 1912, østerrikske økonomer har fulgt opp siden.
Østerriksk økonomi har svært få stemmer i Norge, men vi gjør et stykke arbeide med å relansere gamle Farmand som lot disse stemmer komme i tale – inkludert Mises selv.
Den enkelte leser gjør best i å studere dette på egen hånd. Sky all informasjon fra maktapparatet som pesten. Let opp de økonomene som advarte mot krisen, se hva de sier og står for. Du vil finne den rake motsetning til den “tukting” av finansmarkedene som Isachsen står for.
Hele det institusjonelle maktapparatet: BI, Arbeiderpartiet, LO, Norges Bank, Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Høyre, (og nå også Minerva, we hope not!?) - alle står de bak den Keynesianske tvangstanken, mer kontroll! mer tukt! mer statlig styring! mer statlig intervensjon!
De som tror på individuell frihet, de som tror på frie markeder - de er skjøvet til side. Det er ikke plass til dem noensteds innefor det tuktkammer disse maktmenneskene skaper.
De som i utgangspunktet tror på det frie mennesket velger å holde kjeft for å beholde jobb, betale huset og få sin pensjon.
Det er viktig at du som individ ser dette, ser makten, ser maktapparatet, maktbegjæret bak disse uttalelsene om tukt og kontroll. Nesten ingen har incitament til å fortelle deg sannheten, de spiller med på laget. Du må lete opp sannheten selv.
Isachsen står sammen med makteliten og krever mer styring, mer tukt, sterkere reguleringer, disse skal iverksettes av han selv og hans godt betalte likesinnede.
Isachsen så ikke krisen komme forrige, har vi da noesomhelst grunn til å tro han forstår den nå? At hans ønske om å tukte markedene er klokt? Eller at han kan si noesomhelst om den neste krisen som må komme?
Tvert imot hva Isachsen anbefaler er løsningen frihet, ikke tukt. Løsningen å sette menneskene frie, å sette markedene frie. Først og fremst gjennom å fjerne maktmenneskenes kontroll over pengene våre. Pengene våre, vår valuta, den Norske Krone er i dag ikke lenger penger med egenskaper slik våre oldeforeldre lærte oss som barn ”en krone er en krone”, “den som sparer den har”, “sikkert som banken”. Nei, den Norske Kronen er i dag et politisk instrument. En fiksjon, en abstraksjon, et papir, et tall i en datamaskin. Pengene, som styrer våre liv er blitt 100% politisert. Og med denne politiseringen av pengene er all moral rundt penger vasket ut med det samme.
Isachsens løsning med mere tukt! mer stat! bruk mere statlige penger! legger grunnlaget for ennå større krise senere. Dette snakker ikke Isachsen om, men når neste krise kommer om 1-2-5-20 år vil hans likesinnede på nytt skrive ” Finanskrisen kom kastende på oss, som lyn fra klar himmel.”
Hans Jørgen Lysglimt
Nov 27th, 2009 | Økonomi | No Comments
Nov 27th, 2009 | Økonomi | No Comments
By: Hans Lysglimt
Data Privacy - Norway is a campaign by the Norwegian IT industry to promote Norway as a safe haven for data privacy and digital consumer rights. Norway has independent strong data privacy laws that Data Privacy - Norway wants to develop as a competitive advantage for the Norwegian IT industry as a whole.
Hosting providers and application providers based in Norway have a competitive advantage towards their equals in California as Norway has a stronger framework for data privacy and digital consumer rights. We want to focus on this and strengthen this advantage.
In USA and California large companies like Google, Yahoo, Facebook, Twitter and Microsoft can legally do theoretically whatever they want with your data. The government of the USA can and does build profiles on every human being on the planet through programs like Echelon. In Norway on the other hand your privacy and your data is legaly protected by a culture for consumer rights and a number of strong institutions.
The word “ombudsman” is originally a Norwegian word. The concept of an ombudsman is very familiar to any Norwegian. In Norway there is a strong tradition for the rights of consumers and for data privacy. in fact - we believe the concept of data privacy and digital consumer rights is stronger in Norway than in any other culture world wide, and we want to turn this into a competitive advantage for the Norwegian IT industry. Norway has a strong independent institutional framework for consumer rights and digital data privacy. Being modern western democracy outside of the European Union and the USA Norway offers perhaps the best institutional framework for consumer rights and digital data privacy in the developed western world.
More and more data is being produced, collected and stored online. As people all over the world awaken to the risks of online data storage there will be increasing focus on data privacy and digital consumer rights.
Unfortunately both the USA and the EU seem to be going in the wrong direction with ever more monitoring of online activity by governments.
This is also a fact in Norway, but Norway has among the strongest debates and resistance towards there intrusions both culturally and institutionally. The fact that Norway is outside the European Unions further ensures that Norway can handle any issue independently of Washington and Brussels.
Data Privacy - Norway also works to keep Norway data-safe and work for continued strong digital consumer rights in Norway.
By promoting Norway as a safe haven for data privacy and digital consumer rights Data Privacy - Norway puts pressure on Norwegian politicians to keep up and enforce strong rights as a competitive advantage for business opportunities and employment in Norway.
Please join this campaign and work with us to promote Norway as a data safe haven.
Please help spread the word about Data Privacy - Norway to consumers, industry professionals, politicians and media.
November 27. 2009
Hans Jørgen Lysglimt
http://www.facebook.com/lysglimt
Founder of the campaign Data Privacy - Norway.
Page on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/#/pages/Data-Privacy-Norway/209859768693?ref=ts
This article may be reproduced with reference to the source link on Facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?saved&&suggest¬e_id=188338327117&id=209859768693
Nov 27th, 2009 | Økonomi | No Comments
(In Norwegian.)
By Hans Lysglimt:
Nå faller korthuset Dubai, og det er bare begynnelsen på neste fase i krisen. Tilsvarende problemer som de som nå er avdekket i Dubai finnes på en rekke nivåer i de internasjonale finansielle systemene.
Bankene sitter på enorme tap i balansen som ennå ikke er tatt.
Amerikanske statsobligasjoner er kunstig oppblåst (renten er kunstig lav) og her ligger det enorme tap når dette blir normalisert.
Statsfinansene i hele den vestlige verden er fundamentalt konkurs på lang sikt.
Det overraskende er ikke at de dukker opp, men at de klarer å holde dem skjult så lenge som de gjør.
30 år med økonomiske utskeielser ridende på en bølge av inflasjon vil kreve sin pris. Den prisen må betales i denne runden, det er vår overbevisning i Farmann. Vi tror ikke de klarer å inflatere seg ut av dette og forskyve problemene en bølgelengde til, slik de nå har gjort siden krigen.
Den deflatoriske kraften trekker balongen ned mot jorden med en sterkere kraft en de klarer å blåse varm luft inn i den. Turbulensen i forsøkene gjør at investorer faller av balongen og knuses mot bakken. Faller Dubai forsvinner titalls milliarder dollar i belånt egenkapital, et tap på 1 milliard dollar gir 5 eller 10 milliarder dollar i tapt likviditet = deflasjon. Dette gir igjen ytterligere tap. Det er dette Alan Greenspan har kalt ”cascading cross defaults” – at tapene kommer som fallende dominobrikker.
I Farmann har vi sett med vantro på børsoppgangen siden mars. Vi har sittet i gull, og anbefalt gull – det har gått svært bra, men ikke så bra som aksjemarkedet. For de som har gått inn i aksjemarkedet er det bare å gratulere – men samtidig minne om at gevinstene eksisterer på lånte penger og på lånt tid. Vi anbefaler alle å selge alt av aksjer i dag, for å beskytte seg mot den dramatiske nedgangen vi ser komme i neste fase av finanskrisen.
Vi har siden mars oppgangen begynte ment at vi vil se nye bunner før dette er over. Oppgangen i markedet er fyrt opp av de nye kredittrammene statene har etablert. Disse nye pengene var ment for realøkonomien, men disse pengene har funnet vei først og fremst til børsen og obligasjonsmarkedet.
Risikoen i denne runde er ekstremt mye høyere en ved forrige topp i 2007. Dette fordi rentevåpenet er brukt opp. Dersom panikken kommer tilbake, som vi tror den vil – kan ikke sentralbankene sette ned renten igjen for å proppe opp markedene. Renten er allerede nullet. Sentralbankene må derfor ty til andre midler. Vi tror sentralbankene ved neste panikk vil gå inn og kjøpe aksjer direkte på børsen. Det er viktig å huske at sentralbankene kan gjøre akkurat hva de vil. De kan trykke penger og kjøpe aksjer, obligasjoner, hus, biler, kunst – ja hva som helst. Inflasjonsmålet er kun en fordekket måte å manifestere det maktgrepet den politiske eliten har på økonomien, på hele samfunnet.
Vår anbefaling i Farmann ligger fast:
Fysisk gull (selv om vi maner til noe forsiktighet siden gullet har steget så kraftig i det siste.)
Aksjer i gullproduserende selskaper.
Noe sølv.
Diversifisert i flere typer kontanter spredd over flere institusjoner i flere land.
27. november 2009
Gran Canaria
Hans Jørgen Lysglimt
Denne artikkel kan republiseres i sin uendrede helhet og med følgende linker medfølgende:
Linker:
Farmann: http://www.farmann.no
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lysglimt
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/#/pages/Farmann/19594808379?ref=ts
Tollfritt.org For Tollfri Privatimport: http://www.tollfritt.org
International media forum: http://www.tvally.com
Epost - webhosting: http://www.runbox.com
Facebook applications: http://www.irunbox.com
Internet marketing: http://www.collectia.com
Nov 19th, 2009 | Økonomi | No Comments
Nov 17th, 2009 | Økonomi | No Comments
Nov 17th, 2009 | Økonomi | No Comments
Tollfritt.org - nå også som Facebook gruppe. “Join” denne gruppen.
Vårt initiativ, kampanjen Tollfritt.org har nå fått 1400+ fans på Facebook på tre måneder siden den ble lansert 16 september.
Vi følger nå opp med en ny Facebook group da disse har litt forskjellig funksjon på Facebook. Bli gjerne med på begge og inviter dine venner.
*** Øk 200-kronersgrensen for moms og toll på pakker fra utlandet NÅ! ***
Ettersom antallet supportere øker blir det nå mulig å gjøre mer med dette initiativet.
Facebook group:
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?v=wall&gid=203102187618
Facebook page med 1400+ fans:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Tollfrittorg-For-Tollfri-Privatimport/137508897124
Hans Jørgen
Farmann
Oct 19th, 2009 | Økonomi | 1 Comment
What day will reality catch up new money euphoria? Today, tomorrow, the day after. We have waited since the rally began in March. Safely in gold, on the sideline we have watched as the markets have rallied with amazing strength. And the rally seems to continue, we are awaiting the moment to go short – it has still not arrived, but it can be long now. This rally has more rally behind it than in front.
See, the rally is based on new money, and optimism on new money. The new money is real, check for that – the optimism surrounding it we are not so sure. The money is reaching the financial industry, check. The crisis made main street do deep cost cuttings, that show up as profits in the latest few quarters. But are people and corporations actually buying, are they expanding? If you feel you have the definitive answer to this, if you somehow sit on data that puts you in the know one way or the other – you are way ahead.
We are still of the belief that this is not your regular recession, and recession recovery. People and investors were spooked for real in 2008 – the rara times, the credit expansion that lasted from 1945 to 2007 will not come back the way it was. The economy demands to be restructured, the painful process of creative destruction. But the politicians do not want pain, it does not buy votes. So they treat the symptoms of the pain, they treat the actual pain – but they do not treat the source of the pain – the painfully needed readjustment process.
Sooner or later, and actually already much later than we had thought, the reality of the situation will catch up with Wall Street. Main street is not getting money as the financial industry is getting. Maybe the rally in the banks is justified, maybe, but that does not mean the rally in everything else is justified. Car rental corporations have rallied 30 times, 30 times! since March.
We believe 2009-2015 will be a period of financial consolidation. People will keep their old car, they will fix that broken sink, they will vacation locally, they will plant that garden, they will save. And corporations to, they will brace for hard times in the future.
Profits will go down, stabilize on a radically different and lower level.
Painful readjustments will have to be made.
And don’t even get me started on the currencies and government borrowing. Sooner or later confidence will run out, inflation will pick up and interest rates begin to rise to compensate for all this. This will put downward pressure on equities across the board.
Ok, this does not mean that money can not be made in this time frame. It simply points out the difference of making money as the tide comes in towards making money as the tide runs out.
Making money this time around will have to be done differently. More mindfully.
Yours from still sunny Oslo.
October 19. 2009
Hans J Lysglimt
Oct 1st, 2009 | Økonomi | No Comments
The century of inflation 1913-2013
More on that tomorrow…
Preparing for the end game
Today is October 1. 2009. I have called for a market crash this October. I have called for preparing to short the markets aggressively. I still urge you to be prepared, always prepared. But, it is too soon to say if it will materialize. Perhaps the massive stimulus programs will give us another run for the money.
Your situation right now, dear reader can be compared to a mom and pop store owner, say a small lamp store (you) – located next to a luxury Italian furniture store (the government). The furniture store owner also owns the building you’re both in, and drives all the traffic into your store. The building is worth USD 10 million. Recession arrives, and the furniture store owner starts loosing money, big money. He has to call it quits, or raise the stakes. His wife and friends are employed in the store, he feels he cant’ loose face and close. As he owns the building, he goes to the bank and takes out a loan on the value of the building. He already has a loan of 3 million on the building, he lends another 3 million totaling 6 million and puts 3 million into his furniture store. Effectively he bails himself out. He takes his own ability to lend on his fortune, to bail himself out in the present. He is consuming his capital. But, right there and then - everything looks fine. He’s wife is happy, he can come home and rest in the afternoon - just like he is accustomed to. All is well - right?
This is precisely what the government has done. It borrows on the citizens ability to pay future taxes (or the stupidity of lenders to think they will be repaid in non-depreciated currency), and bails themselves out in the present to create the illusion that all is fine.
This is your situation right now. You were saved by someone else’s bailout. If he had called it quits, you would have been gone too. But instead he raised the stakes, so you have been given some time. Can he bail himself out again? Perhaps? Perhaps he can lend another one to two million, if he is stupid enough. Perhaps not - it’s not your call anyway.
You see that the furniture store is loosing money, but he does still have money to go for another year or two. And perhaps the bank will even lend him that million or two more on the building – hard to tell. But sooner or later, the furniture store will go under – and you will go under with it. You can not survive if the store is empty, or a supermarket moves in.
So effectively, what you have is some time. The game is lost, but there is still time. You are a living dead. You don’t have a sustainable business – but you have some time. Some time to make money, before the reckoning.
What do you do?
So we have been thinking what to advice you and your lamp store, what if… what if this stimulus program really is “working”. That there will be another boom, before the final bust. Before the end game. Before the crackup boom. What if this is the fist stages of the crackup boom? Because we are pretty confident that this, if it materializes, will be the last boom of the inflating 20th century. Firstly, this boom will be shorter than the previous, is is built on such shaky grounds. We’ll give it two to four years. Hmmmm. That happens to be about 2012. The Federal Reserve was created in 1913, and that’s when the inflation madness began. How fitting if the final crash comes at the centennial of the Fed 2013 – what a spectacular way to go down.
This boom will be shorter, and it will be more “shallow” in nature. The markets are truly spooked. The financial markets are lifted, that is the prices of equities are lifted, but investments in long term production assets will probably not be euphoric like the financial markets. This is hot money, super hot money driving the markets.
So, ok. Let’s say there is a rally, two, three or four years. Should you participate? Should you invest, should you leverage, should you borrow? Regardless what you do you should do as my old friend Sture Eriksen used to say an “stand near the exit door”. When this thing comes crashing it will be fast, and you should be able to slip through before the stampede.
In general we do not favor debt, we don’t like it. But, if you can leverage and indebt a limited liability corporation – that is something different. This is what it’s for LIMITED liability. So, if you do call this rally as another surf-able wave of inflation you should surf it through a limited liability corporation, not in your own name. Do not co-sign on the liability with your own name – keep arms length distance. Then, invest in highly liquid assets. And then, lastly – “milk” the inflationary gains as you get them by diversifying into other legal vehicles. While the going is good you can “fan out” – spread your assets, spread your risk, diversify and gain control. When the bust hits, this will be much harder.
Ideally you should have two limited liability corporations. One with very low risk, the one you aim to keep for life. Another where you take extreme risk, where you go for quits. As the risk inc makes paper money, phantom profits in the “up” wave – you move money over to the safe house. Any restaurateur will know this model, one company owns the premises another company runs the establishment. This is perfectly legal.
Another free tip, worth hundreds of thousands of dollars is to have different auditors of the two companies. Trust me, don’t aim to save some money by using the same – use different, you can play them up against each other.
So, back to the lamp business.
This is what you should do, this is the recipe:
Incorporate your own personal holding company.
Incorporate the lamp business in a separate limited liability company.
Use different auditors and different banks.
Put yourself on a high salary.
Negotiate massive credit lines with the bank, increase over time.
Negotiate massive credit lines with all supplies, increase over time.
Lend money n the bank to branch out and establish several other lamp stores.
Have suppliers extend more credit to set up more stores.
Sell to everyone you can, even buyers with lousy credit. Extend credit.
Get the auditor to accept low write downs on inventory and accounts outstanding to show large “profits”.
Channel over all profits over to your holding company each year – use the bank credit to actually transfer over real money.
Pay yourself first, don’t have any money outstanding.
When the furniture store goes bankrupt, declare bankruptcy on the lamp store.
Negotiate with the bankruptcy lawyer to do a massive inventory sale, that you get paid very well to do by him.
There you have it.
Please notice that this procedure is perfectly legal. And, on top of this there are numerous illegal tricks as well. The whole things is morally despicable, but no more despicable than what goes on every day in the Central Banks and the commercial banks. In fact, they encourage you to do just this, in fact they WANT you to do this. While the going is good, this is called economic growth. Positive Gross Domestic Product GDP. And people had jobs as well – great!
The bank will lose money in the bankruptcy, sure – but that really does not matter for the state will bail the bank out. And in the good years they made money on you – right?
And so it goes.
Hans Lysglimt
Oslo, Norway
October 1. 2009
