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Snudd rentekurve i USA varsler kommende lavkonjunktur

Notwithstanding Bernanke's view, we can conclude that the currently observed flattening or near inversion of the yield curve is an indication of a tighter Fed stance that is likely to undermine various activities that sprang up on the back of the previous easy monetary policy. In short, a flattening or the inversion of the yield curve is likely to result in an economic slowdown.

This conclusion is also supported by the visible fall in the growth momentum of money AMS. Our monetary analysis indicates that the growth momentum of economic activity, as depicted by real GDP is likely to weaken visibly in the months ahead. In fact the yearly rate of growth in Q4 is forecast to fall to 2.4% from 3.2% in Q4 last year. Given the possibility that the micro-foundation of the US economy is severely dislocated on account of the previous aggressive lowering of interest rates by the Fed, it will not surprise us if the economic slowdown is going to be much more severe than what we currently envisage. Frank Shostak. (Mises.org)


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