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December 24, 2007

God Jul – Merry Christmas

Farmann ønsker alle sine lesere en riktig god jul.

Farmann wishes all its readers a very Merry Christmas.

December 13, 2007

Shorting the market

Well, I hope you have followed my advice and shorted the market yesterday as I have adviced.

http://www.farmann.no/2007/11/december_12_unique_shorting_op.html

It's not to late today, but you want to hurry.
This market is heading south big time.

I have been surprised by the strength of the bullrun leading up to December 11.
The FED did lower the interest rate by 0.25% as predicted.
However, I have been surprised by the markets rally up towards that.
I have also been surprised by the FEDs coordinated efforts with European central banks on December 12.

Anyway,
The put option I have reccomended could be had at SEK 20.50. I think that was a good price. If the market drops 3-4% in the next 44 days you are in the money, it will.
I like the April contract even better at SEK 56.
For safety you would buy the January 09 contract at 92.25.

Now we will see how the market goes.

There is really only one way from here, and that is down.
The question is how fast.

The collapse started today December 13.

You read it here first.

December 12, 2007

Midsummer Meltdown

20 page report (PDF file) just released from CEPR Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington D.C.
It is called "Midsummer Meltdown".
We are in for a hard hard landing.


http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/meltdown_2007_08.pdf

Who is buying?

It is evident for more and more that the market in heading south.
So they sell.
Former leveraged bulls deleverage and sell.
They deleverage and sell in ratios of 1:1 or more perhaps even 1:5.
There is already significant selling pressure.

Yet the market only dips a little, and then it seems to pick up again.
So someone is there to pick up these shares from the sellers.
In huge quantities.

Who are they? Who is buying now?
Who is leveraging long now? How do they think?

Is it institutions that have to buy?
Is it sovreign funds abroad?
Is it pure speculative greed from investment banks and hedge funds?
It is living dead investment banks (they already see the game is over for them) that place extreme bets in the hope they can recover?
Is it insiders in the companies?
Is it the last idiots on the street extending their still valid credit limits with their brokers?

Naturally it is not just one single thing.
But what is it?
Who is buying?


http://www.farmann.no/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=2

December 11, 2007

Text of Fed Statement

Text of Fed Statement
December 11, 2007 2.22 PM

Below is the full text of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement from its meeting December 11, 2007.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4%.

Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today's action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4%. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis.

December 04, 2007

Message From Ron Paul

December 3, 2007
By: Ron Paul - To the Ron Paul mailing list

Want to know a secret? There were two moments I especially enjoyed at
the CNN/YouTube debate -- despite my frustration at some of the
questions, and the maldistribution of time.

First, I was pleased at John McCain's attack, which he clearly had
planned. Not because that sort of stream-of-consciousness nonsense about
Hitler and WWII -- when the neocons openly want what they call WW IV! Are
we to forget that the first war crime charged at Nuremberg was waging
aggressive war?

I mean this: mainstream politicians NEVER attack an opponent they think
is far behind. The McCain campaign, we've heard, is worried sick about
New Hampshire, and they thought a slam at me would help. Ha! Of
course,
it only strengthened our forces.

Then, after the debate, Rudy Giuliani walked up to me and said, "Oooh,
you sure have a LOT of supporters." It's only the beginning, I told
him.

Indeed, he could have told that by the crowd outside after the debate.
Mitt Romney had a few people, but no one else did. We, on the other
hand, had about 500 enthusiastic revolutionaries, plus a boat, a trolley,
and two planes towing lighted signs. As I looked out at the crowd, I
thought: the establishment has no idea of what they are facing. We have
an army of freedom, prosperity, and peace. As the LA Times political
blog noted the other day, the
British also thought they had no problem with the Americans--until
Yorktown.

But we have an astoundingly short time before the first contests. The
Iowa caucuses are on January 3, the New Hampshire primary is on January
8, and Nevada and South Carolina are both on January 19. We have only
30 days to stake our claim to the nomination, and to the new America
that restores the ideals of the founders, and leads the world through
free enterprise, a sound dollar, the rule of law, and peaceful example.
Not through
inflation and bombs.

Help me surprise the neocons and all the establishment with our
success. Help me build the foundation for the America we all want. Send your
most generous contribution:� https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.� The
military-industrial complex, the biased media, the big banks, the Fed,
the waterboarders, and the IRS don't like what we're doing. But every
good American is applauding us, and daring to hope for a better future.

Please, help me give it to them, to us, to all Americans to come. Keep
this revolution growing and winning:�
https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.

Sincerely,

Ron

December 01, 2007

Ny språknormering – og riksmål?

Ny språknormering – og riksmål?
Av: Odd Gunnar Skagestad

Professor emeritus Finn-Erik Vinje beskriver i en artikkel i Aftenposten 12 . ds. de tilløp som nå – i kjølvannet av rettskrivningsreformen av 2005 – skjer i retning av en fastere språknormering. Symptomatisk for dagens utvikling er således at det hittil i år er kommet i handelen tre ordlister som alle tilbyr en trangere språknorm enn den vidtgående valgfrihet som Språkrådet åpner for: Aftenpostens rettskrivningsordliste, NTB-språket og Riksmålsordlisten (7. utgave).
Med utgangspunkt i det fellesgods som disse tre ordlistene representerer, lanserer Vinje en dristig plan: Hvis betegnelsen riksmål igjen skal komme til heder og verdighet som betegnelse på landets hovedspråk, kunne man samordne de overveielser som ligger til grunn for de tre ordlistene. Og han fortsetter: ”Dermed kunne man samle seg om en norm som ville samsvare med faktisk språkbruk i landet, og vi kunne kanskje få etablert en normsituasjon noenlunde i samsvar med den vi finner i våre naboland. Og riksmålet kunne få tilbake sitt gamle navn”.
Vinjes ytringer presenteres av Aftenposten som en ”debattartikkel”. Den har imidlertid hittil ikke utløst noen nevneverdig debatt, og avisen synes heller ikke å ha vært innstilt på å åpne sine spalter for eventuelle bidrag i så måte. Det er beklagelig, for dette er en sak som kunne fortjene å belyses seriøst, grundig og med et åpent sinn, og som burde påkalle et bredt og aktivt engasjement i det offentlige rom.
Vinjes plan er et konstruktivt innspill til en norsk språkdebatt som erfaringsmessig har hatt altfor lett for å kjøre seg fast i gamle, størknede hjulspor. Og intet ville, etter undertegnedes oppfatning, være bedre enn om man kunne enes om å kalle riksmålet – ja, nettopp: Riksmål. Men hva om selve navnevalget skulle vise seg å være en avgjørende anstøtssten?
I så fall kunne man – som parallell, valgfri betegnelse – hente ordet samnorsk frem fra glemselen. Hvorfor ikke la et fordums utskjelt navn på et diskreditert språkpolitisk prosjekt bli gjenfødt og rehabilitert, men nå som sidestilt navn på vårt moderne og revitaliserte riksmål? Og samtidig få gravlagt et skrømt fra en språkstrid som nå burde være historie?
Dermed kunne vi endelig også – ikke minst – bli kvitt den selvmotsigende og usannsynlig uformuende, krøkkete og krenkende betegnelsen bokmål...
Noe å tenke på for Språkrådet?

The credit contraction rule

The credit contraction rule: The force of a correction is equal and opposite to the delusion that preceded it. What would you expect to follow the biggest credit expansion of all time? Something pretty dramatic.

Bill Bonner