The Short Medium And Long Of It

The Short View:
More market turmoil.
Several false bear market rallies, extremely hard to play.
Volatile currencies markets.
Massive losses still hidden, they will come out.
Furhter housing correction in the USA.
More bailout packgages.
Interest rates down.
Auto makers failing.
Financial institutions failing.
Gold falling.

The Medium View:
A long recession, quite possibly depression.
Traumatizing realignment of the economy, creative destruction.
Government efforts to conserve old economy and mitigate creative destruction.
Tax increases to fund conservation and mitigation.
Public scapegoats.
Massive long term unemployment, Europe, Asia, USA.
A new terroist attack on US soil, hard clampdown, USA more like Israel.
Terrorist attack on Israel.
A new war effort by the US government.
Gold stabilizing.
Massive unemployment in China creates social unrest and clampdown.

The Long View:
Massive inflation in the USA, it is inevitable.
Double digit interest rates will follow.
Inflation and interest rates will contaminate rest of the world.
Eventuel flight from US dollars.
Strong Euro, weak growth in Europe.
Preassure on the European Central Bank to ease.
European governments running massive fiscal deficits to compensate.
Eventual disintegration and breakdown of the Euro.
European Union disintegrating.
New parallel currencies online.
New online services making the current economy substantially more effective.
Tens of millions of poor elderly in the USA, tragic.
Massive sudden rise in gold to USD 2000 and beyond.
Massive general decapitalization of asset prices.
Continued relative rise of economies in Asia.
Growth of the US government.
Government confiscation of assets, pension funds.
Hardening of the US government.
Massive digital surveilance.
Society fracturing down into smaller socially tied social groups.
Social unrest. Smaller countries fairing better.
Less economic growth as division of labor contracts.
Tigheter controls.
Loss of freedom.

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One Comment

  1. Posted 14 November, 2008 at 2:49 am | Permalink

    How do measure Short, Meduim and Long View?