Sep 29th, 2009 | Politikk, Samfunn, Økonomi | No Comments
Markets are confident again. Well, it’s not so much that they are confident, as that they have removed some of the fear that was prevailing. We are now at some kind of neutral fear level, where the markets are testing if investors have the guts to put on real confidence and go for another sprint.
Here at Farmann we are scared shirtless, and think everyone should be. We fully expect fear to come back big time, and strike hard.
Have a look at Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), makers of the Blackberry.
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:RIMM
It just fell 25% on earning estimates, not far off expectations – but below.
We never liked the Blackberry anyway, too corporate - not individualistic enough. Who buys a Blackberry for their own money? Wen we see a Blackberry we see a position, not a man. Anyway that’s a divergence.
What this illustrates is that the markets are now considering the glass as half full, with the potential for being filled up even. Then all of a sudden fear takes over, and the glass is seen as half empty – with an overnight loss of 25% as a result. Here at Farmann we still consider the glass half empty, with the potential for the bottom to fall out.
So, when this sprint of confidence abates – we do expect the markets to fall in the order of 20-30+%, within days, it will be dramatic.
We therefore suggest great caution, great caution. We suggest preparing to short the markets. We suggest gold. Then again, lately we have ourselves wondering if we are over exposed to gold. The good advice is always; diversity first, then gold (or whatever asset you like).
If you happen to be a Norwegian, you do not need direct exposure to oil, you have that through the state of Norway. If you are not a Norwegian, you might consider oil exposure – we believe oil is going up. The rise of the Asian economies is a trend way bigger even than this current depression. You can’t fight 3 billions peoples desire to be part of the modern world.
If you are Norwegian, you should also prepare for a rally in the Norwegian Krone. Sooner or later the NOK will be perceived as a safe haven and climb to very strong levels. That’s when you should consider cashing in, and then diversifying out of the NOK. In Norway a rather typical summer house, nice – but not breathtakingly nice, is selling for USD 500 000, even 1 000 000. This is ridiculous when you compare that to what you get for USD 500 000 - 1 000 000 in say Floirda. Something has got to give here, and something definitely will. Next year we expect Norwegian real estate to hold up fairly well, while Florida real estate will fall further. If the NOK rallies as well, then the differences here become way way to large to ignore.
From Florida our friend Rune Eriksen reports that real estate has “leveled off” and that buyers are entering the market for condos in the USD 100 000 – 250 000 range. Polish immigrants from the northern states are flocking down to buy condos, he says – after having seen the closing several such deals lately. As much as we like Mr. Eriksen and wish his Florida real estate business well – we still take this leveling off with a grain of salt – as he has skin in the game. Still, he could be right.
In Norway this weekend brought us from the last summery days to the first colder fall days. You can usually tell in Norway, the day the fall came – and this year it was Sunday September 27. This spells as new season, for nature and for the markets. Beware.
Hans Lysglimt
Oslo, Norway
September 29. 2009
Mar 31st, 2008 | Politikk, USA | No Comments
It is hard to judge the USA political process and likelihoods from a foreign/Norwegian perspective.
Especially for someone following the Norwegian media.
Your best bet then is to look at the betting sites.
These are the numbers right now. If you believe otherwise, don’t fret.
Put your money where you mouth is instead and bet against it.
Obama 47% chance.
Mc Cain 39% chance
Clinton 11% chance
…
Ron Paul 0.5% 
Of becoming the next president.
http://www.intrade.com/partners.jsp?ZID=4775&AID=1&CID=2&page=trade&selConID=443007
You have to scroll down on the scrollbar to “Presidential Election Individual” to find the numbers.
Stupid system will not let me cope the link to the actual page.
Mar 9th, 2008 | Politikk | No Comments
Before the US House of Representatives, March 5, 2008
Mr. Speaker: I rise in opposition to H. Res. 951, a resolution to condemn Palestinian rocket attacks on Israeli civilians. As one who is consistently against war and violence, I obviously do not support the firing of rockets indiscriminately into civilian populations. I believe it is appalling that Palestinians are firing rockets that harm innocent Israelis, just as I believe it is appalling that Israel fires missiles into Palestinian areas where children and other non-combatants are killed and injured.
Unfortunately, legislation such as this is more likely to perpetuate violence in the Middle East than contribute to its abatement. It is our continued involvement and intervention – particularly when it appears to be one-sided – that reduces the incentive for opposing sides to reach a lasting peace agreement.
Additionally, this bill will continue the march toward war with Iran and Syria, as it contains provocative language targeting these countries. The legislation oversimplifies the Israel/Palestine conflict and the larger unrest in the Middle East by simply pointing the finger at Iran and Syria. This is another piece in a steady series of legislation passed in the House that intensifies enmity between the United States and Iran and Syria. My colleagues will recall that we saw a similar steady stream of provocative legislation against Iraq in the years before the US attack on that country.
I strongly believe that we must cease making proclamations involving conflicts that have nothing to do with the United States. We incur the wrath of those who feel slighted while doing very little to slow or stop the violence.
Congressman Ron Paul (R) Texas
Feb 12th, 2008 | Kommentar, Kronikk, Politikk | 2 Comments
BIG BROTHER
Av Per Morten Hoff
Vil du at dine telefonsamtaler, dine smser, dine mail, dine
bevegelser og dine besøk på diverse nettsteder automatisk skal
lagres og overvåkes i inntil 24 måneder? Er du i tillegg villig
til å betale for dette?
Trolig vil de fleste svare nei på disse to spørsmålene. Men det er
ikke opp til hver enkelt person å avgjøre dette. Det er det
politikerne som skal gjøre, på vegne av oss, når de nå snart tar
stilling til Datalagringsdirektivet.
Storebror ser deg allerede, men nå ønsker han å se enda mer. Men
personvern er en menneskerett og en betingelse for et fungerende
demokrati. Derfor er det helt på sin plass å diskutere om vi skal
ofre personvernet i kampen mot alvorlig kriminalitet.
Datalagringsdirektivet er foreslått for å bekjempe blant annet
terrorisme, men terrorens bakmenn er ikke dummere enn at de
allerede har funnet bakveier. Man står derfor i fare for å lage et
direktiv som overvåker og rammer alle uskyldige, mens de med
kriminelle hensikter går fri. Men politiet synes å mene at det vil
være kjekt ha en slik database for å kunne sjekke alle norske
borgere.
Det bør startes et folkeopprør mot Datalagringsdirektivet.
Politikerne bør absolutt ikke gi etter for politiets ønsker om å
overvåke all data- og teletrafikk i landet vårt.
Vi legger igjen en rekke elektroniske spor. Hvem skal få lov til å
snuse i dem? Vi har allerede opplevd at skattemyndighetene har
hentet ut opplysninger fra bomringselskapene for å finne ut om vi
har brukt bilen til jobb. Blir det neste at helsemyndighetene vil
få en elektronisk utskrift av hvor ofte vi handler på polet, eller
om vi kjøper sunn nok mat på Rema? Vil vi ha et slikt samfunn?
Det er på tide å slå ring rundt personvernet. Datatilsynet har
ytret seg sterkt kritisk til ønsket om å overvåke all tele- og
datatrafikk til alle borgere i landet. Dette bør politikerne lytte
til.
I USA vakte en ganske triviell sak stor oppmerksomhet rett før
jul. En ung amerikansk gutt ved navn Will hadde nøye planlagt
hvordan han på nyttårsaften skulle falle på kne foran sin kjære og
ta frem to nyinnkjøpte forlovelsesringer. Slik skulle det
dessverre ikke gå.
Will hadde bestilt to flotte ringer på den populære websiden
Overstock.com, hvor man kan gjøre noen virkelige varp iblant. Men
rett etter at Will hadde trykket på kjøp på hjemmesiden til
internettbutikken begynte et surrealistisk mareritt. Han begynte å
få mail og telefoner med lykkeønskninger fra venner og bekjente.
Noen av vennene hadde rukket et besøk på Overstock.com og sett på
ringene, og kommenterte at de så riktig så fine ut. Hvordan kunne
hele hans vennekrets vite at han hadde bestilt forlovelsesringer
på nettet? Selv hans utkårede ringte og kommenterte ringene.
Planen om stor overraskelse og et romantisk øyeblikk var gått
fullstendig i vasken. Uten Wills viten eller samtykke hadde
Facebook.com sendt en mail til hans venner, ut fra hans
kontaktliste på Facebook, om ringkjøpet. En avansert cookie-basert
funksjon bringer angivelig Facebook-fellesskapet enda tettere
sammen ved at man kan følge hverandres store og små netthandler.
Will ble selvsagt rasende. Det samme ble tusener av andre
Facebook-brukere i USA, som følte at privatlivet var tatt fra
dem. De krevde snarest at den nye tjenesten i Facebook, kalt
Beacon, ble stoppet.
Jeg føler at Overstock.com og Facebook har ødelagt en del av mitt
liv, skrev Will i en blogg noen dager senere, og tusenvis av andre
hengte seg på. Will ble rikskjendis i USA over natten og ble
intervjuet av mer enn 20 TV-stasjoner. Facebook måtte beskjemmet
krype til korset og sterkt beklage at de hadde laget den aktuelle
tjenesten, selv om medlemmene i nettverket tilsynelatende deler
stort og smått seg i mellom. Facebook har nå endret
Beacon-funsksjonen, slik at man utrykkelig må gi tillatelse til
publisering av kjøp.
Wills historie er tross alt triviell, men får politiet det som de
vil i Norge, vil nok George Orwell rotere i sin grav i Sutton
utenfor Oxford. Orwell bommet med noen år, men hans visjon er i
ferd med å bli en ubehagelig sannhet om ikke politikerne slår ring
om personvernet. Stopp datalagringsdirektivet - stopp big brother.
Per Morten Hoff
Feb 6th, 2008 | Politikk | No Comments
Pressemelding fra EFN (Elektronisk Forpost Norge)
Oslo, torsdag 7. februar 2008
NEI TIL PRIVATØKONOMISK TVANGSBLOTTING!
Et enstemmig Storting har vedtatt at skattelistene skal kunne
vises i medier hele året. Dette gjelder også medier som har sider
på Internett. Faktisk har det nå blitt slik at når man søker på et
personnavn, som f.eks. Bjarne Nilsen, så er et av de første eller
øverste treffene man finner setningen “Se hva Bjarne Nilsen
tjener”!
Denne setningen kommer fram når folk søker på ditt navn av helt
andre årsaker, f.eks. for å finne ditt nettsted eller
kontakt-info. Så sendes man til denne nettsiden der man kan søke
på hva hvem som helst i Norge tjener. Man kan også se hva folk i
Norges land tjener rangert etter høyest til lavest inntekt. Det er
ofte ikke noen god reklame å ha for liten inntekt. Denne
ufrivillige offentlige blottleggingen av personopplysninger kan
føre til en rekke konsekvenser og scenarier som lovbestemmerne
ikke har sett. Ungdom opplever å bli mobbet på skolen og rangert.
Naboer eller kolleger grafser og sladrer. Arbeidsmiljø eller
fremtidsutsikter skades eller reduseres.
Andre land undrer seg over denne åpenheten, for ikke å si
tvangsblottingen av personopplysninger. Internett er jo heller
ikke bare tilgjengelig for nordmenn og -kvinner: din og min
inntekt, samt bosted og alder vises nå over hele verden! Hele
året! Bor du alene på et øde sted? Er du i tillegg oppe i årene og
har litt penger? Verdens innbruddstyver og ranere, og kadrer av
svindlere på nett takker den norske staten for godt samarbeid.
Vi må også erkjenne at en persons alder er en av de sterkeste
faktorene for båssetting. Er man over eller under en viss alder,
alt varierende etter kontekst, vil man kunne bli vurdert negativt
i forhold til alderen hvis den som kommer til kunnskap om
vedkommendes fødselsdato har forutinntatte oppfatninger om hvordan
en person i den aktuelle aldersgruppen er eller skal være. Dette
kan opplagt medføre uheldige vurderinger og forbigåelser på et
sviktende grunnlag både i yrkesmessige og andre relasjoner.
Næringsliv og lokale myndigheter ønsker å prisdifferensiere kunde-
eller brukermassen for maksimal uttelling. Ønsker vi et samfunn
der alle behandles forskjellig ut fra deres inntekt? Og ut fra
stereotypier om alder? Og bosted?
Stortinget har altså vedtatt denne offentliggjøringen og åpnet for
global grafsing i og tvangsblotting av nordmenns og -kvinners
personopplysninger uten noen debatt og informasjon, det bare
dukker opp på nettet og legges på toppen i søkemaskinene.
Det oppleves som et overgrep at man nå ikke kan ha det minste
kontroll med sine egne personopplysninger og hvor de spres.
Selvangivelsen er en personlig kontrakt mellom individet og
skatteetaten, og ikke noe som alle skal ha innsyn i.
Argumentene mot offentliggjøring og spredning av selvangivelsen
kan kort oppsummeres slik:
1. En persons inntekt er utelukkende et forhold mellom
arbeidsgiver og arbeidtaker.
2. En persons skattelikning er utelukkende et forhold mellom
personen og skattemyndighetene.
3. Skattelistene gjenspeiler ikke de faktiske forhold (se [1]).
4. Alder og bosted kan ofte være sensitive personopplysninger
som derfor bør være under den enkeltes kontroll.
5. Disse personopplysningene kan misbrukes av personer med uærlige
hensikter.
6. Finnes det i det hele tatt noen argumenter for offentliggjøring
av selvangivelsen? Hvor er i såfall disse argumentene? Hvis de
ikke finnes, hva er da grunnen til at selvangivelsen
offentliggjøres?
Det kan være viktig for pressen å ha tilgang til skattedata for
å kunne drive kritisk journalistikk. Men dette kan gjøres med
anonyme data og uten at pressen behøver å kjenne den enkeltes
inntekt eller formue, som Skattebetalerforeningen har påpekt[1].
[1] Nei til grafsing i folks privatøkonomi
http://www.skatt.no/skatt/nyheter_arkiv/nei_til_gr/
Kontaktpersoner for denne pressemeldingen:
Per Inge Østmoen
pioe@efn.no
mobil: 4735 2097
Bjørn Remseth
rmz@efn.no
mobil: 4790 0184
——————————
———————————–
EFN er en elektronisk borgerrettsorganisasjon - en
rettighetsorganisasjon for ALLES rettigheter - som jobber med
medborgerskap og juridiske rettigheter i IT-samfunnet.
www.efn.no
http://efn.no/selvangivelsepersonvern-pm2008.txt
Dec 4th, 2007 | Politikk | No Comments
December 3, 2007
By: Ron Paul - To the Ron Paul mailing list
Want to know a secret? There were two moments I especially enjoyed at
the CNN/YouTube debate — despite my frustration at some of the
questions, and the maldistribution of time.
First, I was pleased at John McCain’s attack, which he clearly had
planned. Not because that sort of stream-of-consciousness nonsense about
Hitler and WWII — when the neocons openly want what they call WW IV! Are
we to forget that the first war crime charged at Nuremberg was waging
aggressive war?
I mean this: mainstream politicians NEVER attack an opponent they think
is far behind. The McCain campaign, we’ve heard, is worried sick about
New Hampshire, and they thought a slam at me would help. Ha! Of
course,
it only strengthened our forces.
Then, after the debate, Rudy Giuliani walked up to me and said, “Oooh,
you sure have a LOT of supporters.” It’s only the beginning, I told
him.
Indeed, he could have told that by the crowd outside after the debate.
Mitt Romney had a few people, but no one else did. We, on the other
hand, had about 500 enthusiastic revolutionaries, plus a boat, a trolley,
and two planes towing lighted signs. As I looked out at the crowd, I
thought: the establishment has no idea of what they are facing. We have
an army of freedom, prosperity, and peace. As the LA Times political
blog noted the other day, the
British also thought they had no problem with the Americans–until
Yorktown.
But we have an astoundingly short time before the first contests. The
Iowa caucuses are on January 3, the New Hampshire primary is on January
8, and Nevada and South Carolina are both on January 19. We have only
30 days to stake our claim to the nomination, and to the new America
that restores the ideals of the founders, and leads the world through
free enterprise, a sound dollar, the rule of law, and peaceful example.
Not through
inflation and bombs.
Help me surprise the neocons and all the establishment with our
success. Help me build the foundation for the America we all want. Send your
most generous contribution:� https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.� The
military-industrial complex, the biased media, the big banks, the Fed,
the waterboarders, and the IRS don’t like what we’re doing. But every
good American is applauding us, and daring to hope for a better future.
Please, help me give it to them, to us, to all Americans to come. Keep
this revolution growing and winning:�
https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.
Sincerely,
Ron
Nov 27th, 2007 | Politikk | No Comments
November 27, 2007
By: Jonathan Bydlak
Fundraising Director
Ron Paul 2008
Our goal - our one and only goal - is to elect Ron Paul president of the United States. But as of this message, time is not on our side.
We have approximately 900 hours until the Iowa caucuses and about 1,000 hours until voters in New Hampshire go to the polls. That’s just 900 hours for all of us to do what we can to make sure Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination for president.
Dr. Paul’s best opportunity to win the nomination is for him to make a strong showing in the early primary states of New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada. Appropriately, the most important part of our campaign strategy is an unrelenting blitz of radio and TV ads in these states.
The evidence shows very strongly that consistent, targeted media exposure is the best tool to increase Ron Paul’s name recognition. It’s no accident that Dr. Paul is surging in early primary states. Recent polls show him at 8% in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, and 6% in Iowa. In most cases, this represents a doubling of our poll numbers in just two weeks!
Your grassroots support on the ground, coupled with targeted media is critical to all of these efforts. Because half of “likely voters” still haven’t heard of Ron Paul, we have plenty of room to double our poll numbers again. The donations that you make now allow us to continue our current level of intense media in these states uninterrupted.
Remember: We’re battling against the likes of Mitt Romney, who is spending close to a million dollars per week on TV ads alone. The more we raise, and the sooner we raise it, the better we can compete.
And now that Michigan’s primary also will be held in January, meeting the $12 million mark as soon as possible is more important than ever. This goal represents the minimum amount that we believe is necessary to make a strong run at the nomination. But because of the wealth and connections of the other candidates, none of us should be content with any amount that we raise. After all, we can’t be satisfied with merely giving Ron Paul a chance to win the Republican nomination. We have to be determined to give him the absolute best chance possible.
The political elites recognize that Ron Paul is for real, and that he is the only first tier candidate with a message that threatens their power. It’s no wonder that Rudy Giuliani, as reported in yesterday’s Washington Post, is now on the offensive against Ron Paul.
Everyone involved in any way with this campaign has been making sacrifices that often go unnoticed and unrecognized. The selflessness with which you all donate to and volunteer for Ron Paul is the best sign that what we are doing truly is bigger than any one of us. On behalf of our campaign, I sincerely thank you for everything that you do every single day.
All of us recognize that this political race is not a game. It will prove to be the most important presidential election of our lifetimes.
Help us continue to repeatedly exceed expectations. Make your most generous donation today: https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.
Jonathan Bydlak
Fundraising Director
Nov 21st, 2007 | Politikk | No Comments
November 20, 2007
During the first few days of October, we announced our fundraising goal for the fourth quarter: $12 million raised by December 31.
But there’s more: we need to have spent it by then, too.
If we were to raise the entire $12 million in the last week of December, we would meet our fundraising goal for the quarter. But Ron Paul would stand little chance of winning the Republican nomination, because that money would have come in too late.
Time is of the essence. You see, we need to raise money well before we plan to spend it. That’s because most of the expenditures that we make need to be paid for weeks in advance. For example, we need to buy crucial airtime for the end of December right now.
The sooner we raise this money, the sooner that we can spread Dr. Paul’s message - our message - in the early primary states. Time truly is money.
Fact is, we only have about two weeks to raise money for the early primaries.
If you wait a month from now to donate, your money will only be spent after Iowa caucus-goers and New Hampshire primary voters have made up their minds.
We are rapidly running out of time. The Iowa caucus is just 44 days away. New Hampshire is in 49 days. With so much ground to make up, we can’t afford to waste a single day.
As a result, we are spending faster than the rate at which we are raising money. In October alone, we raised $2.8 million, but our campaign spent over $3.1 million.
We cannot afford to wait for bursts of press activity. What we need is sustained attention in the news. What better way to do this than by continuing to raise money at a rapid pace now? We need to keep our momentum going.
Help us win in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada.
Make your most generous contribution as soon as you can: https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.
Jonathan Bydlak
Fundraising Director
Ron Paul 2008
Oct 21st, 2007 | Politikk, USA | No Comments
Mr. David Frum gave an analysis of the USA after Bush at a meeting in downtown Oslo hosted by Norwegian think tank Civita Thursday morning.
When asked about the candidacy of Ron Paul, Mr. Frum first briefly explained to the audience who Ron Paul is, telling them he is a Republican Congressman from Texas who ran for President in 1988 for the Libertarian Party, and who now is a contestant for the Republican nomination.
There was no ridicule on Mr. Frum’s part, although members of the audience did laugh when he told them that Dr. Paul wanted to do away with the Federal Reserve and revert to the gold standard.
Mr. Frum told the audience that Ron Paul was “not showing” on the polls, but is doing well financially. Frum further said that Paul could have a significant impact if he decides to run as an independent candidate. He would create problems for the Democratic party, taking votes from them. While not being a man of the left, Dr. Paul could, due to war opposition on the left, draw votes that otherwise would have gone to the Democratic nominee.
