Liquidity driven bubble in alternative energy similar to the 90 era dotcom

[goldfinger]

That could be where things are going in the US, and in the world. Who knows, it seems a new bubble in alternative energy, is the straw that could work in keeping Armageddon at bay.

[Lysglimt]

Could be, especially if governments goes in and starts funding this in various ways.

I also see a potential bubble in gold mining shares, if investors turn to gold and gold goes to USD 2-3000 fast.


The best way to play a bubble is to issue shares yourself, start a renewable energy company... or gold mining company...

[goldfinger]

Could be, especially if governments goes in and starts funding this in various ways.

I also see a potential bubble in gold mining shares, if investors turn to gold and gold goes to USD 2-3000 fast.


The best way to play a bubble is to issue shares yourself, start a renewable energy company... or gold mining company...

Sure, I agree, I think gold and alternative energy will be a part of the same trend, I think it's all part of the peak oil, small farm, self reliant, back to the seventies with a revenge as our lifestyles have to go down as energy becomes more expensive.

[goldfinger]

I bought some gold mining shares at the end of the session today.


I have a vision of some different outcomes of this mess


1. We are in around 1930. That means, this is the low for gold and gold mining shares, a share like ABX should increase from 32 today, to around 150-200 to mirror 29-32, it it plays out as a 1929-1932 scenario.

2. Money flows out of gold, and into equities as money are printed around the world. The economies, and the horrible data from the US slowly improve, and you get a recovery, later in that recovery, after inflation starts to show it's face, gold head up. more of a 74 like recovery. This is where you get an alternative energy bubble, and a new liquidity bull.

3. It becomes a slow and enduring "japan", no collapse, but a very long lasting and grinding bear-market. Even gold goes down, the dollar get stronger.

4. The last option must be a strong dollar bull, like after 1982. But I can't see that the dollar is devalued enough, but if it is, that can be it. I saw some graph on the US output gap on krugmans blog. It's just the same as before 1982, if they can stimulate themselves into a - 4 % boom, with 0 % nominal interest rates, who knows what could happen.