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November 30, 2007

Sustainable rally? - December 11 FED rate cut

The market rallies in expectation of a December 11 rate cut.
And, if the FED cuts that will rally the market.
Especially if they should cut by 0.50%, that will bring a huge rally.
Yet, the recent rally decreases their need to cut. These forces work in circles.
Perhaps the rally will continue until December 11, so they decide not to cut after all and the climax is reached?

Can the rally go on until December 11?
That is another 8 market days...
I find if difficult to think that the market can sustain this for 8 more days. If it does we could rally another 2-3-5%.
Yet, I think this will be difficult.
Perhaps therefore the correction comes now, next week.
Somehow the market is aligning itself for a peak moment, followed by a correction

Perhaps this is the rally the marks the last time for now that the market is discounting now future "good news".

Another question is if the financial industry will report their Level 3 losses in January or in March/April.
This is the trigger that will give the correction in the market.
They should in the name of transparency disclose it in January when they give their 2007 Q4 numbers and their projections for the comming quarter.
Yet, bonuses are paid out in the first quarter so they might want to wait to make sure they get their bonuses paid first.

I have to admit I am moving some put possitions from January to April and even to January 2009.

We are living in interesting times indeed.

Keeping Up With Deflation

"There go my men. I must follow them. For I am their leader."

- Attributed to an Italian general

Yesterday, Don Kohn, number two man at the Fed, told the world that America's central bank would be "flexible and pragmatic."

People knew what that meant. The Fed is prepared to cut rates next month.

So encouraged by this were investors that they set about buying every stock in sight. The Dow rose 331 points. That brings the total to 546 points gained in the last two days. Not bad.

But what does it mean? Less than investors think.

We have opined that the great flood of cash and credit, enjoyed by investors for lo these many years, is now ebbing away. Yesterday's backwash seemed to contradict us. And we've been doing this for far too long to imagine that we know God's Own Plan for the U.S. economy. Anything can happen - and usually does!

But let us look at what is happening. The Fed funds rate is 4.5%. Investors now imagine that a 50 basis point cut is coming. That will take the signal rate down to 4%. But in this instance, the Fed will not be leading…it will be following. The 10-year note already yields less than 4%. Bonds have been falling since June. They are just another of the many signs of deflation - of a draining away of credit, cash - liquidity - from the markets.

In other words, now the Fed is no longer driving inflation

…it is trailing along behind deflation, trying to keep up with it.

We indented that last sentence, because we didn't want you to miss it; we are so proud of it. Remember it. Quote it to your friends. To put it another way…the Fed is no longer pulling on the string…it is pushing on it. In offering money at 4% (just a hypothesis) it will only be catching up to what investors have already been doing.

Now, it's private lenders who are doing the pulling. They're reluctant to lend into the open market; because they fear they won't get their money back. But they're happy to lend to the U.S. government. Spreads are widening - always a sign of a tightening credit market.

For example, Citibank got itself into subprime trouble and needs big money, fast. So, it turned to Abu Dhabi. But the Arabs wanted a lot more than the T-note rate. They wanted a pound of flesh - forcing one of America's leading financial institutions to pay a rate normally associated with third world hellholes and first world shysters - 11%.

Behind the subprime problem is a problem in the U.S. housing market…and in U.S. economy…and in the whole world economy.

Houses are selling at their slowest rate in eight years, Bloomberg reports. In California, sales are down 40% from a year ago.

And here's more from Bloomberg:

"The worst U.S. housing recession in 16 years will drive down property values by $1.2 trillion next year and slash tax revenue by more than $6.6 billion, according to a report by the U.S. Conference of Mayors… 'The real estate crisis of 2007 and 2008 will go down in the record books… The wave of foreclosures that has rippled across the U.S. has already battered some of our largest financial institutions, created ghost towns of once vibrant neighborhoods - and it's not over yet.'"

No, it's not over yet. In some ways, it has barely begun…because the knee-bone of consumer spending is still connected to the thigh-bone of house prices, which is still connected to the hip-bone of mortgage credit. And if one of these bones breaks, the economy stops walking forward and falls on its face.

That is what we think is happening.

There's a greater than 50% probability that the financial system "will come to a grinding halt because of losses from mortgages said Gregory Peters, Head of Credit Strategy at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).

"Lenders' belt tightening stifles growth in economy," says the NY Times.

"Mortgage crisis is a drag on Atlanta economy," says the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Well…yes…the ankle bone is connected to the shin bone. That's the way it works. You can't take $1.2 trillion out of the consumer economy, without consumers feeling it.

And now the Fed is rushing to try to put the money back in. Alas, it is not that easy. Japan's central bank tried it for 17 years.

And America is in a much tighter spot than Japan. With a very positive trade balance, and abundant savings, the Japanese had room to maneuver. Not so the United States. Investors have already shown what they could do to the dollar. Let the Fed cut rates more and there could be a bloodbath in the currency markets…forcing spreads even wider, and pushing the U.S. economy into an even deeper crisis.

*** No milestones reached this week. At least, that's the way it looks so far. Oil has not gone over $100. Instead, it dropped to $90. The euro (EUR) did not go over $1.50. Instead, it has held steady at $1.48. And gold did not rise above $850. Instead, it fell back to towards $800.

But we think these milestones will be reached - even though we think the dominant trend of the market is in the other direction, towards deflation, not inflation.

Have we confused you yet?

Tomorrow, we will clarify. There are two, apparently contradictory trends underway. Both will be fully expressed - eventually. Inflation is unstoppable. Deflation is unmovable. How and when they collide is the story we are following.

And what an exciting story it is!

Our guess is that investors will be smacked by deflation. And then they'll be walloped by inflation. What can they do?

We're still buying gold - on dips. The price is back to a record set in 1980. But if you look at a chart of gold and compare it to one of gold in the '70s, you see a different pattern. Back then, gold rose slowly…and then took off in '78…soaring in a big spike to $850. So far this century, we've seen nothing like that. Gold has steadily gained ground. But there has been no spike.

That spike stage is typically the final stage of a bull market - when taxi drivers start talking about which gold stocks to buy…and TV presenters ask whether the price will go to $5,000 an ounce. We've seen none of that. Just steady price appreciation. The real excitement is still ahead.

*** We mentioned a few days ago that popular attitudes to free trade are changing. Americans have come to believe that they are on the short end of the stick…that they gain less from free trade than they lose to it.

In a theoretical sense, they are surely wrong. Free trade is good for everyone. But it is better for some than for others.

If protective tariffs and trade barriers really made any sense, Indiana could improve its lot in life by prohibiting goods coming in from Ohio. California could benefit by excluding Wisconsin cheese. Pennsylvania could protect itself from Virginia hams. West Virginia could develop a thriving auto industry by prohibiting imports from Japan…or Michigan.

Adam Smith and the laissez faire economists demonstrated long ago that free trade improves standards of living for everyone, by allowing people to do what they do best. No convincing evidence to the contrary has ever been presented.

But just because it is stupid doesn't mean it won't be popular. If this were not so, television wouldn't be nearly as successful as it is…and no recent candidate for president of the United States would have been elected.

Here too…there go the voters. Our leaders must follow. Expect a shift in political rhetoric…a shift against free trade.

*** Another thing you can expect is more government meddling in the credit markets. The feds can't really permit millions of homeowners to lose their houses, says colleague Dan Denning:

"This sounds like a job for a new federal agency to buy the debt from the bankers at an agreed upon discount, say 50 cents on the dollar. The agency then becomes the landlord of the ARM borrowers…and is free…on behalf of the government of the United States and the American people…to re-set the loan at a fixed rate for a different maturity.

"The financial markets get transparency and the risk is moved off bank balance sheets on to the Fed or the Federal Home Loan Banks. Stocks rally!

"Borrowers get a reprieve from the hangman's noose. Stocks rally!

"The Fed gets order back in the credit markets and some measure of control of the situation. Stocks rally!

"I'm not saying the dollar would respond well to this massive socialization of housing losses.

"But…we live in the 21st century. All financial losses are socialized. The only question right now is how this one will be managed.

"We have some clue with the fact that the Atlanta Federal Home Loan Bank has loaned - get this - $51 billion to Countrywide Financial… (NYSE:CFC) since September 30th. I'm not kidding. California is not in Atlanta, in case you were wondering.

"I would have suggested Fannie (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie (NYSE:FRE) as the preferred bail out vehicles. But they need bailing out themselves, faced with write-downs in the value of their own mortgage portfolios and a regulatory inability to purchase mortgages. Congress could simply change the limits on the size of the GSE portfolios…and the Fed could loan them the money to purchase the toxic stuff from other lenders. But it's likely these two have been sullied too much to be saviors.

"Or the Fed could just load up the garbage on its balance sheet and extend the term of its loans…trading cash for trash for as long as the trade takes. Come to think of it, the Fed's been turning cash into trash for years, so this is probably the least exotic option.

"…But I'd say the trade of the decade is still a good one: sell the dollar, buy gold. In fact, I think you're going to see the liquidation of all sorts of higher-risk assets…bonds, emerging market stocks, and high-yield currencies….to maybe buy call options on 90-day t-bills. Or precious metals.

"Either way, I'd expect something big, but low-key. The action of the Atlanta FHLB was very low profile…lest taxpayers realize it was back-door bailout of Countrywide. But you know, this seems like the kind of bailout everyone can get behind…unless you own a lot of dollars and are counting on them to retain their value.

"If you're one of those people, you know, a saver…well sorry. Good behavior should be its own reward. But don't expect to get paid for it.

"Meanwhile, I expect the formation of a pseudo-public ARM/CDO slush fund, like the Resolution Trust Coporation. Banks might even capitalize this entity a little, to make it less obvious bad loans are being transferred from the private sector the public balance sheet.

"Heck, they might even sell shares in the thing. Why not an IPO and let people buy shares in the recovery of the housing market. Pay a dividend (those IO loans need to keep performing), and make it tax deductible. Don't just socialize the risk, make it investable!"

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

November 29, 2007

Tullinløkka: Ingen skam å snu!

Tullinløkka: Ingen skam å snu!
Av: Odd Gunnar Skagestad

Dramaet om Tullinløkka – et farsemessig skuespill med potensiale for en tragisk utgang – er ikke over. I lengre tid har beslutningstagernes spill vært innhyllet i illevarslende taushet, hvor den offentlige debatt langt på vei har vært fraværende. Takket være aktørenes stigende utålmodighet har vi i den senere tid likevel fått enkelte glimt av hva som foregår.

En pekepinn kom i artikkelen ”Mangler nøkkelen til Tullinløkka” i Dagens Næringsliv 3. ds. Her uttalte Nasjonalmuséets direktør Allis Helleland seg passe diffust om muséets byggeplaner, men på ett punkt var hun krystallklar: ”Det eneste som ligger helt fast er at det blir på Tullinløkka”, erklærte Helleland, som til alt overmål kunne opplyse at hun hadde fått ”garantier om at byggeprosjektet skal gjennomføres” fra kulturminister Trond Giske. Aftenposten kunne 10. ds. følge opp med et førstesideoppslag og en to-siders reportasje (overskrift ”Kan så vidt rekke jubileet”), hvor det redegjøres for de planer som har vært lagt – og de politiske programerklæringer som har fremkommet – om å bygge et såkalt ”Nasjonalmuseum” på dette beskjedne men attraktive byrommet i hovedstadens hjerte. Her kan vi lese at Kultur- og kirkedepartementet, ifølge statssekretær Randi Øverland, jobber ”knallhardt” med arkitektkonkurransen. Vi får vite at ”det skal være et mål at nytt nasjonalmuseum skal være en gave til publikum ved 200-årsjubileeet for Grunnloven i 2014”. Og det fremgår at Norske arkitekters landsforbund (NAL) ved sin president Jannike Hovland etterlyser klarlegging av premissene for en eventuell arkitektkonkurranse – herunder forankring i forpliktende vedtak, økonomisk sikkerhet og ”nødvendig politisk begeistring”.

Signalene lyder ikke betryggende. Og enda mer bekymringsfullt blir det når Aftenposten påfølgende dag også redaksjonelt (lederartikkelen ”Tullinløkka” 11. ds.) stiller seg i fremste linje blant byggeprosjektets pådrivere.

Ulike forslag om utbygging av Tullinløkka har vært debattert med vekslende intensitet siden 1837. En såvidt autoritativ publikasjon som Oslo byleksikon bemerker nøkternt at ”Det har vært fremlagt en rekke planer for bruken av Tullinløkka, som nå i en årrekke har vært benyttet som offentlig parkeringsplass. Flere av forslagene har ført til adskillig debatt”.
Det har ikke manglet på friske idéer. I artikkelen ”Tullinløkken – kulturpolitikkens mare” 13. august 2001 kunne således Aftenposten presentere en liste med ialt 21 ”Forslag til hva Tullinløkken kan brukes til”.

Men her skal altså Nasjonalmuséet for kunst – dette sammenfusjonerte monsteret som ble etablert for å rasere Nasjonalgalleriet – få breie seg med sine utbyggingsplaner. Et prima beliggende om enn litt slitent byrom med potensiale til å kunne opparbeides til en frodig park, skal voldtas og vansires for å tilfredsstille kultokratiets forfengelighet. Her kunne vi ha fått en urban oase. I stedet skal plassen – om vi skal ta signalene alvorlig - fylles igjen med betong i skjærende kontrast til de flankerende klassiske bygningsmassene, omskapes til arena for klåfingrede maktmenneskers dekonstruktivistiske kulturforståelse.

Og bakom det hele fornemmes hvordan aktørenes besvergelser uavlatelig fokuseres på Kulturdepartementets rolle, - det være seg som prosjektets allmektige gudfader og iverksetter, som garantist for at prosjektet virkeliggjøres eller som syndebukk for at det fortsatt ikke er i mål. Men hvor ble det av den demokratiske beslutningsprosess? Hvem – om noen – er det som har bestemt at Tullinløkka overhodet skal utbygges? Realiteten er at spørsmålet om utbygging av løkka aldri har vært forelagt byens borgere og velgere til vurdering. Dette er en utbygging som vi aldri har bedt om, og som vi aldri er blitt spurt om vi ønsker (likesom det heller aldri var noe folkekrav at det skulle etableres noe ”Nasjonalmuseum” – et misforstått etterslep av 1800-tallets nasjonsbyggingsprosjekt, og et konsept som de aller fleste vel erkjenner at var et gedigent feilgrep...).

Plassens ytterkanter – Historisk Museum og det fordums Nasjonalgalleriet – utgjør sammen en bygningsmasse som godt kan tåle en videre tilværelse med luft, lys og rom i rygg og flanker. Det mellomliggende areal ligger der som en invitasjon til å skape et vellykket og harmonisk byrom. Dette er en oppgave som krever forståelse for verdien av å hegne om vår kulturarv, kombinert med ivaretagelsen av storbyens behov for grønne lunger.

Spørsmålet om hva som skal skje med Tullinløkka er et veivalg og fremfor alt et verdivalg. Hva med en tenkepause? Vi har både tid og råd til å vente! Når byen i tidligere tider hadde råd til å unnlate å bebygge Frognerparken, Stensparken, St.Hanshaugen og Tøyenparken, var dette valg som vi neppe bør beklage idag.

Ibsens tragiske dramafigur byggmester Solness måtte til slutt stille seg spørsmålet om ”hvorfor i all verden” han hadde gjennomført sitt tvilsomme byggeprosjekt. La oss slippe å gå i samme fellen. Her som i andre kinkige veivalg kan det være tjenlig å følge Fjellvettregel nr.8, og innse at det ikke behøver være noen skam å snu: Det er faktisk ikke for sent å skrinlegge utbyggingsplanene.

Time is 11.50

The time is now 11.50. That is, there is still a little bit of time left.
The markets are heading south.
The rally is on an expectation of a December 11 rate cut from the FED.
That rally will soon come to an end.
From there it's downwards.

If you have shares sell now.
If you are in the process of negotiating a deal, selling your company, signing a long term contract or like. Do it now! Dont wai't. Don't delay til after Christmas and New Years.
Things will look very very different in just a few weeks time.

Capital assets will be much more scarce.
Fear will arrive.

Act now. NOW.

November 27, 2007

Norway no longer "best"

Apparently the UN now calls Iceland the "best country to live in the world."


Norway held the possition for the last 6 years.

Well, making it Iceland just goes to show how totally messed up this ranking was in the first place.
It measures what it measures, nothing else.

Norway is not, and was never the best place to live in the world.

Iceland best? Good griewance! Have you been there?
The place is cold, dark and dull. The food is awfull.
The good thing about it is that Norse culture is alive, for Norse-buffs like myself.
For anyone else the country is worth ONE 1 week vissit, no more, no less.
Not a place to live, not the best place in the world. Not by far.

Ron Paul - 900 Hours

November 27, 2007
By: Jonathan Bydlak
Fundraising Director
Ron Paul 2008

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Fundraising Director

November 26, 2007

Alan Greenspan on the Credit Crisis

By: Hans Lysglimt, Publisher; Farmann
November 26, 2007.

Alan Greenspan addressed the Norwegian investor community on Friday November 23, 2007 in Oslo. Photographing and recording the event was strictly forbidden, I can see why, we have to respect that. I will therefore here just briefly memo Greenspan’s central line of thought and my brief comments to that.

The address has been referred extensively by the media. I am sure the Monday November 26, newspapers will have more references to the address. See Google for a number of articles and quotes:


Alan Greenspan:
”I will attempt to put the current credit crisis in context. “

Greenspan immediately brought up the credit crisis, named it a credit crisis and emphasised that new events had happened since he finished his book “The Age Of Turbulence” in June.

”The credit crisis was an accident waiting to happen. If it had not been the sub prime market, it would have been something else.”

Greenspan was clear, this is a credit crisis, not just a “sub prime mortgage”, or “housing” crisis, it is much broader than that, Greenspan chooses his words carefully. It happened to be sub prime that got hit first. Sub prime happened to be weakest link in the financial chain. The credit crisis is thus not contained to the sub prime mortgage market.

Greenspan went on about how the current situation, from the fall of the Berlin Wall, is something fundamentally different than what we have seen before. Savings rates went up in the developing world, flooding the world with capital, more than what could be absorbed. Interest rates then went down world wide.
Labour cost went down world wide. This was all disinflationary, it kept inflation low “during my tenure”. Investor risk perception went down over time. Confidence came way up. Liquidity went dramatically up. Asset prices surged across the board.

”There are two stories:
Euphoria continues to feed on itself.
Invariably it crashes.”

”There is only so much risk that investors can temporarily set aside.”

A number of unique historic events have given us this unique situation. This situation can only persist for so long. Developing countries have cut cost in the developed world and kept inflation low. Savings have lowered interest rates giving a surge in assets prices. Increased confidence and reduced risk premiums. This has been going on for 18 years while investors have lowered and lowered their risk premium as things have seemed safe and fine. Sooner or later something has to give. Something has to give first, sub prime mortgages gave in first, more will follow.

”People suddenly realize; There is no nirvana out there.
This is abrupt.
The market swings 180 degrees, suddenly.
Primordial fear sets in.”

”Economists have a tendency to presume symmetrical behaviour on the upside and the downside.
Evidence does not suggest this is the case.
Fear is different from greed.
It is different when euphoria changes to fear.
The downturn of the market is not the mirror image of the upswing.”

Greenspan is acutely aware of the psychology of the markets. Greenspan is warning against a very sudden swing.

Greenspan went on to say the markets changed on August 9, 2007.

”As we speak, the market is just becoming aware that the decline in housing is not stopping.”

Greenspan thought earlier this year that the inventory of homes could be liquidated in an orderly fashion. But inventory has kept rising. Price declines have a tendency to max out when inventory is at its highest.

”We are nowhere near max inventory in the housing market yet. The decline has therefore just begun.”

The market has not yet really started to liquidate houses. We will eventually get a selling climax in this credit crisis. The volumes are still low. This tells us that we have not yet seen the real market prices. In the beginning of a decline sellers are still holding on to ask prices. The big falls happens dramatically. When the sellers eventually give in and hit the offering prices. People move in to buy assets they perceive as undervalued.

”A selling climax occurs. We are still a good deal away from that.”

”We are beginning to see all sorts of asset prices weakening ...(so) where home prices stabilize is critically important for the economic outlook.”

There will be huge losses.

Yes, Greenspan, choosing his words carefully, said “We are beginning to see all sorts of asset prices weakening.” Read again; “All sorts of asset prices”, not just a limited weakness in house/home prices. This decline is coming across the broad range of asset prices as a consequence of the credit crisis and a reversal of the unique situation we have had for the last 18 years.

For the impact on the economy and the financial sector Greenspan is asking himself the same questions the rest of us are.

How far will it fall?
How will this impact the financial system?
What will be the contamination to the other parts of the financial system?

Greenspan was then asked this question: “Is the US market flexible enough to absorb this crisis?”

”That is the crucial question!” he answered.

History has shown us that bursting credit bubbles has always lead to economic contractions. When 9/11 happened he was amazed at the resiliency of the market to absorb the shock. In 1987 we saw the same, that the market was able to absorb the shock. There is increased flexibility in the market now. There is increased flexibility from deregulation and the enormous increase in the size of the global financial markets. ”Today’s flexible system is the best protection we have.”

”It is conceivable that this crisis will be absorbed by the markets, even this time.
We just do not know that.”

So, in my summary; There is a credit crisis, it is real, it has just begun and it is getting worse. Greenspan calls the market swing to August 9, 2007. This swing is playing out as we speak. There is both the immediate credit crisis and a there is a broader turn of the prevailing forces of the last 18 years. The markets are just realizing the seriousness of this credit crisis. The markets will eventually turn to fear, this has not yet happened, it will.

The question is not if this will be bad, it will be bad, massive losses. THE QUESTION IS IF THE MARKETS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THIS CRISIS OR NOT? WE DO NOT KNOW THAT. The markets ability to absorb this crisis will be tested, in a hard way. This might be the biggest test of global financial markets since WWII. This test has just begun. We can hope that the markets are flexible enough to absorb this, they might not be… “we just don’t know that”…

My conclusion:
You want to be out of this market before it is tested for real, before “primordial fear” sets in. I repeat what I said in my November 21, column on LewRockwell.com; “sell your capital assets now and sit put in cash.”


Ask yourself; are people still mainly in greed modus operandi or in fear MO?
I believe it is still prevailingly greed modus.
Just go out in the street, right now…, look “the market” in the eyes… still greed.
You do not want to be in the market when it turns to primordial fear.

You might even want to short the market:


Don’t stay out at sea when you see dark storm clouds come in over the horizon.
Head into port.
You want to sell. Now.

Former FED chairman, now Citizen Alan Greenspan was invited by Norwegian brokers First Securities, who undoubtedly paid top dollar for the privilege. Our nod to them for this surprisingly good use of Norwegian oil money.

To republish this article on your website please contact: (hans at farmann.no)

November 23, 2007

Alan Greenspan in Oslo


Farmann was there - will write up ASAP.
The short version is: SELL! NOW. SELL SELL SELL

November 22, 2007

Faves the Norwegian krone (NOK)

One of my faves the past three years has been the Norwegian krone (NOK)… You know, every time I say the word "Norwegian" I begin to sing… I once had a girl, or should I say, she once had me… She showed me her room, isn't it good, Norwegian wood.

Anyway… Norway printed a stronger than expected GDP report for the third quarter yesterday, and should keep the oven warm for another central bank (Norges Bank) rate hike, which should push the krone even higher versus the dollar. Norway's GDP grew at 1.9% in the third quarter, when it was expected to grow just 1%! So… The spotlight is back on the krone, and well it should be!

I don't know if you know this, I know I explained this once or twice before, but Norway's pension is fully paid for every citizen! That's unbelievable! But true! And they have also secured more! WOW! Add that to a trade surplus… Rising interest rates… Economic growth… And petrol production… And you should have a strong currency!

Six rate hikes this year by the Norges Bank, have failed to dampen growth, and with oil prices going to $100, more rate hikes will be needed to fight inflation!


The Regulation and the Recession

My November 21. 2007 article on LewRockwell.Com " The Regulation and the Recession";

November 15, 2007, mark the date.

On this day came the regulation that finally brought the recession.

Yes, up next is a recession, a major credit crunch. It is way overdue and much needed. The underlying forces of globalization, the rise of Asia and productivity gains from new technology will however soon pick the economy up again, given a few years. It will be a recession, probably not and hopefully not a full blown depression...

Read it on LewRockwell.Com;


Hans J. Lysglimt

November 21, 2007

Welcome LewRockwell.Com visitors

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Hans Lysglimt
Publisher and editor
Economist, Lund University, Sweden. Former leader of the libertarian quasi-party FRIdemokratene.
Author of "What Do You Want To Do With Your Life", life planning book.

December 12. Unique shorting opportunity.

December 12. Unique shorting opportunity.

The market is going down. We are looking at a credit crunch recession.

Particularly implementation of the November 15. 2007 Financial Accounting Standards Board will give the market a big hit. This will happen in January, I expect massive write offs in January bringing the market south, as I said in this article on LewRockwell.com:


On December 11 the FED will meet and it is widely expected that they will cut rates by 0.25%. I am not quite sure they will, but let’s assume they do. That will give us a rally. Remember that the ruling sentiment on Wall Street is still greed. Fear has yet to take over, fear will rule in due time, but for now the market is greedy and willing to bite on any lure that wiggles. The FED’s 0.25% rate drop will give us a rally on December 11 and December 12.

Put options on the broad market always get cheap when there is a bull run. The likelihood of the market going down is perceived as lower and the spread is lowered.

This gives us a unique opportunity for a short term gain. Buy put options on December 12 and sell them in mid January when the bad news have started hitting the market.

Right now I particularly like shorting the Swedish stock market. Swedish industry is very much dependent on exports in dollars. The USD has fallen against the Swedish Krona SEK lately, the USD/SEK exchange rate has fallen from 7 to 6.33 in just the last three months. That’s 10%, and that’s going to hurt earnings in USD while having cost base in SEK. It will eat up profits.


The Swedish stock market follows New York closely, a fall in New York will bring fall in Sweden.

These are the companies in the OMX 30. A lot of export oriented industry and banks. Exports will hurt from the falling USD, banks will hurt from direct losses and a general fear of the sector.


Therese are the available options on the fairly broad OMX 30 index in Stockholm:


These are the put options:


Wednesday November 21 the OMX 30 is at 1060. Swedish investors, like all, are a sheep heard, they will continue selling. By December 12 I expect the market to have continued falling a bit, but lets assume the market bounces back to today’s level.

The put option to look for is therefore one that is just about in the money at that level.

I like OMXS308M1100, it has the highest volume of outstanding contracts in this group, 3045+ contracts today. Its expiry date is January 25, 2007, a Friday. This contract will still have time value in it the Friday before on January 18, that’s the time to sell it. Say the market bounces back to today’s level on the FED rate cut, you should then be able to buy this put option at about the same level as now.

This option (OMXS308M1100) last price is SEK 71, I have been buying it since much lower. That is the price to remember and compare my suggestion to. Check it back December 12 and on Friday January 18, 2008 to compare.

By the second week in January (January 7-12) the bad news has started flooding the market, losses after massive losses. The next week the losses will continue. Everyone will realize that there is much much more bade news to come. The sentiment might even have turned from greed to fear. So on Friday January 18 the blood will be in the streets. I expect massive sell offs on Wall Street that will go over to Stockholm. A fall of 5% makes you sure money, 10% is not unlikely, perhaps the market even might fall by 20%.

Now, you can start buying this option now. Put yourself just a little bit above the market makers bid price, and you will pick up any contracts being sold. Be careful about paying the ask price as the spread is 5%+.

The moment to heavily buy this option is December 11 and December 12, in the bull rally. If the market sentiment turns strongly bullish these few days you might get this contract at bargain prices.

If then the market falls by more than 5% over Christmas, New Year and into the news year this option will soar.

There you have it, have fun.

Oslo, November 21, 2007.

Hans Lysglimt

Donate to Ron Paul 2008

November 20, 2007

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Fundraising Director
Ron Paul 2008

November 14, 2007

buy the dips in gold…sell the rallies in stocks

Since the turn of the century, our approach has been very simple: buy the dips in gold…sell the rallies in stocks (and dollar-based assets, generally). That still looks like a winning formula.

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

November 11, 2007

USA Bank Indexer

Indexene stuper for finansielle foretak i USA.
We are going down - this is for real.



Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index

The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) is an equal-dollar weighted index designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized companies in the U.S. securities broker/dealer industry. Included in this group are companies in the U.S. that provide securities brokerage services, market making, U.S. Treasury Primary Dealer functions and other functions dealing with U.S. and international securities.

Shorte Stockholm OMX

Vi anbefaler ikke ofte direkte investeringer.
Men nå gjør vi det.
Selg det du har av aksjer.
Short Stockholmsbørsens OMX index gjennom å kjøpe salgsopsjoner med lang løpetid.

Du finner dem her, pick and choose:
Stockholm OMX 30 Options

La oss bruke denne som benchmark, så skal vi følge opp prisutviklingen senere:
OMXS308M1100 2008.01.25 50.00 55.00 44.90 44.90 41.00 33768 7000 100 1100.0

Expiration er 25 januar, vi foretrekker lengre løpetider men følger denne på grunn av rimelig høyt volum i den.

For ordens skyld tar vi en kopi av hele settet.
Så kan vi følge disse kontraktene på vei nedover.

Som sagt, kjøp Sverige for Sverige vil garantert dras ned av konjunkturnedgangen.
Norge er umulig å si siden oljeprisen kan flukturere vilt.

Closing prices 9 november 2007.

Options & futures

Specify your view by using the select boxes and sort by clicking on marked column headers. Learn more about options and futures.

Instrument Year Month

Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307W1220 2007.11.23 103.25 108.25 99.75 99.75 90.00 5695 110 100 1220.0
OMXS309M1180 2009.01.23 146.75 151.75 96.75 10400 100 1180.0
OMXS300M1120 2010.01.22 96.75 200 100 1120.0
OMXS308M1220 2008.01.25 112.00 116.25 92.50 16318 100 1220.0
OMXS308P1180 2008.04.25 117.50 121.25 91.75 150 100 1180.0
OMXS307L1220 2007.12.28 9.25 10.75 9.75 14.50 9.50 8432 1880 100 1220.0
OMXS307K1160 2007.11.23 9.50 10.00 9.50 19.00 9.25 18402 14885 100 1160.0
OMXS308D1420 2008.04.25 9.25 75 100 1420.0
OMXS308M940 2008.01.25 9.00 15861 100 940.0
OMXS308A1120 2008.01.25 61.00 66.00 87.75 5 100 1120.0
OMXS308S1240 2008.07.18 168.75 173.75 87.50 1750 100 1240.0
OMXS307W1200 2007.11.23 84.75 89.75 86.75 86.75 79.75 9714 91 100 1200.0
OMXS308G1160 2008.07.18 71.25 76.25 86.00 20 100 1160.0
OMXS308S1120 2008.07.18 101.75 106.75 86.00 3135 100 1120.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307W1240 2007.11.23 122.75 127.75 85.50 5708 100 1240.0
OMXS307X1240 2007.12.28 123.00 128.00 82.50 50 100 1240.0
OMXS309M1100 2009.01.23 110.50 115.50 81.50 14550 100 1100.0
OMXS307X1200 2007.12.28 92.75 97.75 81.25 81.25 81.25 5183 20 100 1200.0
OMXS309M1140 2009.01.23 127.75 132.75 80.00 2050 100 1140.0
OMXS308A1400 2008.01.25 8.75 7621 100 1400.0
OMXS307W1040 2007.11.23 8.00 8.25 8.00 8.00 3.25 18582 3007 100 1040.0
OMXS308M980 2008.01.25 8.00 23208 100 980.0
OMXS308M1240 2008.01.25 126.75 131.25 79.00 364 100 1240.0
OMXS308M1280 2008.01.25 78.00 200 100 1280.0
OMXS307X1220 2007.12.28 107.00 111.75 77.00 1275 100 1220.0
OMXS308M1160 2008.01.25 75.75 80.75 76.00 76.00 76.00 6130 5 100 1160.0
OMXS307X1260 2007.12.28 140.75 145.75 75.00 2 100 1260.0
OMXS307X1180 2007.12.28 80.00 84.25 74.00 74.25 71.00 1723 111 100 1180.0
OMXS308P1100 2008.04.25 77.75 82.75 73.00 30 100 1100.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308M1180 2008.01.25 86.75 90.50 72.00 72.00 72.00 11253 8 100 1180.0
OMXS308S1160 2008.07.18 121.50 126.50 72.00 1095 100 1160.0
OMXS309A1340 2009.01.23 45.75 50.75 71.50 4231 100 1340.0
OMXS308M1200 2008.01.25 98.75 102.50 71.00 71.00 71.00 3356 6 100 1200.0
OMXS309M1060 2009.01.23 94.75 99.75 71.00 4381 100 1060.0
OMXS309M980 2009.01.23 68.00 73.00 70.75 70.75 70.75 6230 10 100 980.0
OMXS307W1180 2007.11.23 68.00 72.00 70.00 70.00 40.50 7730 995 100 1180.0
OMXS308A1280 2008.01.25 9.00 7.75 8244 100 1280.0
OMXS308A1320 2008.01.25 7.00 4179 100 1320.0
OMXS307W1340 2007.11.23 68.00 1 100 1340.0
OMXS307X1160 2007.12.28 67.25 72.25 67.00 67.00 57.00 2493 169 100 1160.0
OMXS309M1020 2009.01.23 80.75 85.75 67.00 2737 100 1020.0
OMXS308D1180 2008.04.25 47.00 50.00 66.50 20 100 1180.0
OMXS308A1140 2008.01.25 50.25 55.25 64.50 8865 100 1140.0
OMXS307L1100 2007.12.28 59.75 64.75 62.50 67.75 62.50 98 9 100 1100.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308G1200 2008.07.18 54.75 59.75 60.25 60.25 60.00 1030 100 100 1200.0
OMXS307L1240 2007.12.28 6.00 7.25 6.25 8.25 6.25 9973 516 100 1240.0
OMXS308A1300 2008.01.25 6.25 32366 100 1300.0
OMXS308A1340 2008.01.25 6.25 2347 100 1340.0
OMXS308M900 2008.01.25 6.25 16007 100 900.0
OMXS308S1080 2008.07.18 84.50 89.50 58.50 1170 100 1080.0
OMXS308D1200 2008.04.25 39.50 42.25 55.80 3500 100 1200.0
OMXS300M1040 2010.01.22 55.00 70 100 1040.0
OMXS307X1140 2007.12.28 57.75 62.25 53.25 56.00 37.25 9870 608 100 1140.0
OMXS307W1160 2007.11.23 53.00 56.25 53.00 53.00 27.75 20926 284 100 1160.0
OMXS308A660 2008.01.25 525.00 30 100 660.0
OMXS308M1140 2008.01.25 66.25 71.25 51.25 4121 100 1140.0
OMXS308M1260 2008.01.25 142.50 147.25 51.25 4083 100 1260.0
OMXS307K1080 2007.11.23 49.75 52.25 51.00 62.00 51.00 155 207 100 1080.0
OMXS307L1120 2007.12.28 47.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 50.00 10 100 100 1120.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307W1020 2007.11.23 5.00 5.50 5.25 5.25 1.70 4355 631 100 1020.0
OMXS307K1180 2007.11.23 5.00 5.50 5.00 11.50 4.75 13221 14145 100 1180.0
OMXS308G1240 2008.07.18 40.75 45.75 49.00 1853 100 1240.0
OMXS309M940 2009.01.23 56.75 61.75 49.00 2793 100 940.0
OMXS308A700 2008.01.25 485.50 100 700.0
OMXS308A1160 2008.01.25 40.25 45.25 45.00 45.00 45.00 150 20 100 1160.0
OMXS307X1120 2007.12.28 48.25 53.25 45.00 47.00 37.50 3760 1620 100 1120.0
OMXS308M1100 2008.01.25 50.00 55.00 44.90 44.90 41.00 33768 7000 100 1100.0
OMXS308P1040 2008.04.25 55.50 60.50 43.50 3021 100 1040.0
OMXS307W1140 2007.11.23 40.50 42.75 42.00 42.00 19.00 32266 1189 100 1140.0
OMXS307L1140 2007.12.28 37.50 41.50 41.50 42.50 41.00 70 121 100 1140.0
OMXS308P1000 2008.04.25 43.25 48.25 40.00 40.00 40.00 20 100 1000.0
OMXS307L1260 2007.12.28 3.70 4.50 4.25 5.25 3.95 11371 658 100 1260.0
OMXS308M1080 2008.01.25 42.75 47.75 39.00 39.00 39.00 5929 5 100 1080.0
OMXS308A1180 2008.01.25 31.50 34.00 38.00 38.00 36.00 12815 70 100 1180.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307X1100 2007.12.28 40.50 44.50 38.00 41.25 25.25 9230 5846 100 1100.0
OMXS307K1100 2007.11.23 36.50 38.00 37.50 62.50 36.25 205 1358 100 1100.0
OMXS309A1460 2009.01.23 37.25 3865 100 1460.0
OMXS308P1020 2008.04.25 49.25 54.25 37.00 64 100 1020.0
OMXS308A780 2008.01.25 362.00 100 780.0
OMXS309A1420 2009.01.23 30.00 35.25 31.00 31.00 31.00 15925 2500 100 1420.0
OMXS308G1280 2008.07.18 30.00 34.50 35.50 35.50 35.50 1075 50 100 1280.0
OMXS308M1060 2008.01.25 36.50 41.25 35.00 35.00 24.25 29429 51 100 1060.0
OMXS308A1200 2008.01.25 24.00 26.25 34.75 6185 100 1200.0
OMXS307X1080 2007.12.28 34.75 37.00 34.75 34.75 20.00 4726 1930 100 1080.0
OMXS309A980 2009.01.23 213.00 218.00 338.00 9300 100 980.0
OMXS308M1120 2008.01.25 57.75 62.75 33.25 5837 100 1120.0
OMXS308A820 2008.01.25 328.00 100 820.0
OMXS308P990 2008.04.25 32.50 20 100 990.0
OMXS308A980 2008.01.25 316.00 6897 100 980.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308D1240 2008.04.25 27.25 29.75 31.25 75 100 1240.0
OMXS307W1120 2007.11.23 31.00 32.00 31.00 31.00 13.00 20473 2868 100 1120.0
OMXS309M1460 2009.01.23 307.00 20 100 1460.0
OMXS309A1500 2009.01.23 30.50 2085 100 1500.0
OMXS308A1440 2008.01.25 3.75 231 100 1440.0
OMXS307W1000 2007.11.23 3.15 3.70 3.70 3.80 1.75 1132 651 100 1000.0
OMXS307K1360 2007.11.23 3.50 397 100 1360.0
OMXS308M860 2008.01.25 3.00 17296 100 860.0
OMXS307X1060 2007.12.28 27.25 30.00 29.00 29.00 15.50 4608 338 100 1060.0
OMXS308A900 2008.01.25 284.00 6860 100 900.0
OMXS307L1160 2007.12.28 28.25 31.00 28.75 40.00 28.75 1117 712 100 1160.0
OMXS309M1420 2009.01.23 263.00 10 100 1420.0
OMXS308G1320 2008.07.18 21.75 25.75 26.00 443 100 1320.0
OMXS307K1120 2007.11.23 25.00 26.75 25.50 34.00 24.75 419 6996 100 1120.0
OMXS308M1040 2008.01.25 31.00 35.50 25.00 25.00 20.25 3540 10 100 1040.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS309M860 2009.01.23 38.25 43.25 25.00 1300 100 860.0
OMXS309M1500 2009.01.23 240.00 20 100 1500.0
OMXS308M1020 2008.01.25 26.00 27.00 24.50 25.00 17.00 10733 737 100 1020.0
OMXS308A940 2008.01.25 238.75 9712 100 940.0
OMXS308D1260 2008.04.25 22.25 24.50 23.25 27.00 23.25 40 100 1260.0
OMXS307W1100 2007.11.23 22.00 23.25 23.00 23.00 8.75 9553 5016 100 1100.0
OMXS308M1400 2008.01.25 220.50 20 100 1400.0
OMXS307X1040 2007.12.28 22.00 25.75 22.75 22.75 12.25 11788 165 100 1040.0
OMXS308D1280 2008.04.25 22.50 1000 100 1280.0
OMXS309M900 2009.01.23 46.75 51.75 22.50 3150 100 900.0
OMXS308A1220 2008.01.25 17.75 19.75 22.00 24678 100 1220.0
OMXS308M1000 2008.01.25 21.50 25.50 22.00 22.00 22.00 28539 1 100 1000.0
OMXS307L1180 2007.12.28 20.25 21.00 21.00 29.25 19.75 1126 1017 100 1180.0
OMXS308D1300 2008.04.25 17.50 20.00 8282 100 1300.0
OMXS309M820 2009.01.23 20.00 1055 100 820.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307L1420 2007.12.28 2.90 100 100 1420.0
OMXS308M820 2008.01.25 2.65 12679 100 820.0
OMXS307W990 2007.11.23 2.55 2.90 2.55 3.00 1.00 9965 437 100 990.0
OMXS307K1200 2007.11.23 2.30 2.75 2.50 5.75 2.10 11007 14758 100 1200.0
OMXS307L1280 2007.12.28 2.15 2.85 2.50 3.50 2.40 6725 1160 100 1280.0
OMXS308A1420 2008.01.25 2.00 11075 100 1420.0
OMXS308G1360 2008.07.18 15.75 18.75 19.25 126 100 1360.0
OMXS300A1160 2010.01.22 187.00 5000 100 1160.0
OMXS308D1000 2008.04.25 148.25 153.25 186.00 4 100 1000.0
OMXS300A1200 2010.01.22 186.00 6000 100 1200.0
OMXS308A1040 2008.01.25 112.75 117.75 181.25 75 100 1040.0
OMXS308A1080 2008.01.25 85.50 90.50 172.50 5 100 1080.0
OMXS307X1020 2007.12.28 17.50 20.50 17.75 17.75 9.25 4795 30 100 1020.0
OMXS308D1340 2008.04.25 17.00 40 100 1340.0
OMXS300A1240 2010.01.22 167.00 1020 100 1240.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307W1080 2007.11.23 16.00 17.00 16.75 16.75 6.00 17130 8785 100 1080.0
OMXS307K1140 2007.11.23 16.50 17.00 16.75 32.25 16.25 2482 17072 100 1140.0
OMXS309M780 2009.01.23 25.00 16.00 8928 100 780.0
OMXS308P1300 2008.04.25 159.50 10 100 1300.0
OMXS307W1320 2007.11.23 155.00 80 100 1320.0
OMXS308P1280 2008.04.25 154.50 300 100 1280.0
OMXS309A1100 2009.01.23 141.75 146.75 151.00 10039 100 1100.0
OMXS308S1320 2008.07.18 226.50 231.50 150.25 75 100 1320.0
OMXS308A1020 2008.01.25 127.50 132.50 143.00 7506 100 1020.0
OMXS309M1300 2009.01.23 215.00 220.00 142.50 4060 100 1300.0
OMXS307L1040 2007.12.28 100.25 105.25 140.50 81 100 1040.0
OMXS308P1260 2008.04.25 170.75 174.75 140.25 300 100 1260.0
OMXS300M1240 2010.01.22 140.00 10 100 1240.0
OMXS308A1240 2008.01.25 13.00 14.75 14.50 14.50 13.75 8887 92 100 1240.0
OMXS307L1200 2007.12.28 14.00 17.00 14.00 20.50 14.00 3684 211 100 1200.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308A1060 2008.01.25 98.75 103.75 135.00 12375 100 1060.0
OMXS307W1300 2007.11.23 135.00 10 100 1300.0
OMXS307X1360 2007.12.28 135.00 2 100 1360.0
OMXS309A1180 2009.01.23 102.50 107.50 134.75 9363 100 1180.0
OMXS309M1260 2009.01.23 190.50 195.50 134.50 6060 100 1260.0
OMXS309M1340 2009.01.23 241.75 246.75 133.25 50 100 1340.0
OMXS309A1140 2009.01.23 121.25 126.25 132.50 101 100 1140.0
OMXS300M1280 2010.01.22 132.00 1060 100 1280.0
OMXS307X1300 2007.12.28 131.00 10 100 1300.0
OMXS308M1340 2008.01.25 130.00 99 100 1340.0
OMXS307X990 2007.12.28 11.50 13.50 13.00 13.00 7.00 2258 2456 100 990.0
OMXS307X1000 2007.12.28 14.00 16.75 13.00 13.50 10.25 773 1505 100 1000.0
OMXS309A1260 2009.01.23 70.25 75.25 129.00 9240 100 1260.0
OMXS307W1260 2007.11.23 142.50 147.50 127.50 1732 100 1260.0
OMXS308P1240 2008.04.25 156.00 160.25 126.75 367 100 1240.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS309A940 2009.01.23 239.75 244.75 124.00 2000 100 940.0
OMXS307W1400 2007.11.23 123.00 2 100 1400.0
OMXS308M1300 2008.01.25 122.25 8898 100 1300.0
OMXS300A 2010.01.22 1147.75 1153.00 1210.00 11285 100
OMXS309A1020 2009.01.23 187.75 192.75 120.00 620 100 1020.0
OMXS308A1260 2008.01.25 9.25 10.75 12.00 12.00 12.00 7512 600 100 1260.0
OMXS308D 2008.04.25 1160.00 1375 100
OMXS308M1420 2008.01.25 116.75 160 100 1420.0
OMXS308G 2008.07.18 1158.00 2278 100
OMXS308S1200 2008.07.18 143.75 148.75 115.25 201 100 1200.0
OMXS308A 2008.01.25 1122.25 1126.50 1147.00 1147.00 1147.00 37430 640 100
OMXS307X1320 2007.12.28 114.00 1 100 1320.0
OMXS309A 2009.01.23 1132.75 1137.00 1136.00 1155.75 1136.00 19346 456 100
OMXS308P1220 2008.04.25 142.25 146.25 113.50 150 100 1220.0
OMXS307L 2007.12.28 1120.50 1121.00 1119.75 1158.00 1119.75 13182 1675 100
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307K 2007.11.23 1115.50 1115.75 1115.50 1154.00 1112.50 391885 113311 100
OMXS300A1280 2010.01.22 110.00 7510 100 1280.0
OMXS308M990 2008.01.25 11.75 3139 100 990.0
OMXS307W1060 2007.11.23 11.25 12.25 11.50 12.00 3.90 21937 3024 100 1060.0
OMXS309M1220 2009.01.23 167.75 172.75 109.50 1510 100 1220.0
OMXS309A1060 2009.01.23 164.00 169.00 109.00 3010 100 1060.0
OMXS308M1380 2008.01.25 108.50 75 100 1380.0
OMXS307X1280 2007.12.28 108.00 50 100 1280.0
OMXS308M1320 2008.01.25 107.75 13 100 1320.0
OMXS309A1220 2009.01.23 85.25 90.25 105.00 7920 100 1220.0
OMXS307W1280 2007.11.23 105.00 21 100 1280.0
OMXS308A1100 2008.01.25 73.00 78.00 104.25 16722 100 1100.0
OMXS309A1300 2009.01.23 57.00 62.00 103.00 13380 100 1300.0
OMXS308P1200 2008.04.25 129.50 133.50 102.25 150 100 1200.0
OMXS307K1060 2007.11.23 64.50 67.75 100.50 118 100 1060.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308A1360 2008.01.25 1.90 298 100 1360.0
OMXS307L1300 2007.12.28 1.20 1.80 1.55 1.55 1.30 11399 170 100 1300.0
OMXS307K1380 2007.11.23 1.50 4475 100 1380.0
OMXS308A1380 2008.01.25 1.45 1469 100 1380.0
OMXS308M780 2008.01.25 1.20 1604 100 780.0
OMXS307K1220 2007.11.23 1.05 1.20 1.10 2.60 1.00 27519 6748 100 1220.0
OMXS308M740 2008.01.25 1.10 1.10 1.10 6607 100 100 740.0
OMXS307L1320 2007.12.28 1.00 1251 100 1320.0
OMXS307L1360 2007.12.28 1.00 3942 100 1360.0
OMXS307K1420 2007.11.23 0.70 100 100 1420.0
OMXS307L1340 2007.12.28 0.50 0.75 0.60 0.60 0.60 6323 280 100 1340.0
OMXS307K1240 2007.11.23 0.55 0.65 0.55 0.90 0.55 15966 2512 100 1240.0
OMXS307L1380 2007.12.28 0.40 35170 100 1380.0
OMXS307L1400 2007.12.28 0.40 127 100 1400.0
OMXS308A1460 2008.01.25 0.40 2961 100 1460.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308M700 2008.01.25 2.25 0.40 9143 100 700.0
OMXS307K1400 2007.11.23 0.35 180 100 1400.0
OMXS307K1260 2007.11.23 0.25 0.40 0.30 0.30 0.25 15103 610 100 1260.0
OMXS308A1500 2008.01.25 0.25 12406 100 1500.0
OMXS308M660 2008.01.25 0.70 0.25 3771 100 660.0
OMXS307K1280 2007.11.23 0.20 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.15 16806 1521 100 1280.0
OMXS307K1300 2007.11.23 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.09 21779 1260 100 1300.0
OMXS307K1320 2007.11.23 0.10 12874 100 1320.0
OMXS307K1340 2007.11.23 0.07 0.08 14709 100 1340.0
OMXS307K990 2007.11.23 100 990.0
OMXS307K1000 2007.11.23 116.00 120.75 100 1000.0
OMXS307K1020 2007.11.23 97.75 102.25 100 1020.0
OMXS307K1040 2007.11.23 80.50 84.50 100 1040.0
OMXS307L990 2007.12.28 100 990.0
OMXS307L1000 2007.12.28 131.75 136.75 100 1000.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS307L1020 2007.12.28 115.50 120.50 100 1020.0
OMXS307L1060 2007.12.28 86.00 91.00 100 1060.0
OMXS307L1080 2007.12.28 72.50 77.50 100 1080.0
OMXS308A740 2008.01.25 100 740.0
OMXS308A860 2008.01.25 100 860.0
OMXS308A990 2008.01.25 100 990.0
OMXS308A1000 2008.01.25 143.00 148.00 100 1000.0
OMXS308D990 2008.04.25 100 990.0
OMXS308D1020 2008.04.25 134.50 139.50 100 1020.0
OMXS308D1040 2008.04.25 121.25 126.25 100 1040.0
OMXS308D1060 2008.04.25 108.50 113.50 100 1060.0
OMXS308D1080 2008.04.25 96.50 101.50 100 1080.0
OMXS308D1100 2008.04.25 85.00 90.00 100 1100.0
OMXS308D1120 2008.04.25 74.50 79.50 100 1120.0
OMXS308D1140 2008.04.25 64.50 69.50 100 1140.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308D1160 2008.04.25 55.25 58.50 100 1160.0
OMXS308D1220 2008.04.25 33.00 35.50 100 1220.0
OMXS308D1320 2008.04.25 100 1320.0
OMXS308D1380 2008.04.25 100 1380.0
OMXS308D1460 2008.04.25 100 1460.0
OMXS308D1500 2008.04.25 100 1500.0
OMXS308G1080 2008.07.18 111.75 116.75 100 1080.0
OMXS308G1120 2008.07.18 90.25 95.25 100 1120.0
OMXS309A780 2009.01.23 100 780.0
OMXS309A820 2009.01.23 100 820.0
OMXS309A860 2009.01.23 297.00 302.00 100 860.0
OMXS309A900 2009.01.23 267.75 272.75 100 900.0
OMXS309A1380 2009.01.23 36.25 41.25 100 1380.0
OMXS300A1040 2010.01.22 100 1040.0
OMXS300A1080 2010.01.22 100 1080.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS300A1120 2010.01.22 100 1120.0
OMXS300A1340 2010.01.22 100 1340.0
OMXS300A1380 2010.01.22 100 1380.0
OMXS300A1420 2010.01.22 100 1420.0
OMXS300A1460 2010.01.22 100 1460.0
OMXS300A1500 2010.01.22 100 1500.0
OMXS307W1360 2007.11.23 100 1360.0
OMXS307W1380 2007.11.23 100 1380.0
OMXS307W1420 2007.11.23 100 1420.0
OMXS307X1340 2007.12.28 100 1340.0
OMXS307X1380 2007.12.28 100 1380.0
OMXS307X1400 2007.12.28 100 1400.0
OMXS307X1420 2007.12.28 100 1420.0
OMXS308M1360 2008.01.25 100 1360.0
OMXS308M1440 2008.01.25 100 1440.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS308M1460 2008.01.25 100 1460.0
OMXS308M1500 2008.01.25 100 1500.0
OMXS308P1060 2008.04.25 62.25 67.25 100 1060.0
OMXS308P1080 2008.04.25 69.75 74.75 100 1080.0
OMXS308P1120 2008.04.25 86.75 91.75 100 1120.0
OMXS308P1140 2008.04.25 96.25 101.25 100 1140.0
OMXS308P1160 2008.04.25 106.50 110.00 100 1160.0
OMXS308P1320 2008.04.25 100 1320.0
OMXS308P1340 2008.04.25 100 1340.0
OMXS308P1380 2008.04.25 100 1380.0
OMXS308P1420 2008.04.25 100 1420.0
OMXS308P1460 2008.04.25 100 1460.0
OMXS308P1500 2008.04.25 100 1500.0
OMXS308S1280 2008.07.18 196.25 201.25 100 1280.0
OMXS308S1360 2008.07.18 259.00 264.00 100 1360.0
Shortname Exp. date Bid Ask Last High Low O/I Volume Size Strike
OMXS309M1380 2009.01.23 270.25 275.25 100 1380.0
OMXS300M1080 2010.01.22 100 1080.0
OMXS300M1160 2010.01.22 3000 100 1160.0
OMXS300M1200 2010.01.22 100 1200.0
OMXS300M1340 2010.01.22 100 1340.0
OMXS300M1380 2010.01.22 100 1380.0
OMXS300M1420 2010.01.22 100 1420.0
OMXS300M1460 2010.01.22 100 1460.0
OMXS300M1500 2010.01.22 100 1500.0

Kan markedet falle 50-60%? David Tice mener det

Farmann lanserer fast side om Oslo været

Været er viktig.
Værmeldingene er ofte elendige.
Dels er værmeldingene upålitelige, dels forteller de ikke hva vi egentlig er ute etter.

Farmann har i dag derfor lansert en egen vær side for Oslo været.
Her har vi lagt opp en rekke kilder til å forstå Oslo været slik det er akuratt nå.
Dermed kan man selv slutte seg til hvordan dagen og morgendagen blir.
Den beste forutsigelse om morgendagens vær er som kjent dagens vær (om ikke annet er kjent).

Vi har lagt opp:
Kilder fra Met.no
En rekke live webkameraer i forskjellige himmelrettninger i Oslo
Sattelittbilder i råform


Farmann Oslo Weather

November 09, 2007

Panikken kommer

Ennå er markedets sterkeste kraft grådigheten.
Fryken vil komme.
Frykten kan komme plutselig, da heter det panikk.
Motsatsen til panikk finnes ikke på grådighetssiden, markedet går aldig opp med 10% på en dag, men det kan gå ned 10% på en dag.
Risikoen i dag er helt overveiende på den negative siden.

Vi forventer helt fullt å få en panikk dag før julen setter inn.
Vi forventer å se fall i Oslo, Stockholm og New York på 3-5-10% på en dag.

Vi shorter nå markedet aktivt, lange short possisjoner med mye tidsverdi.
Disse vil vi rulle fremover.

Det sikreste er å shorte Stockholm, London eller New York.
Oslo er en stor joker for om USA angriper Iran vil oljeprisen stikke til USD 150+ og da skyter Oslo i været.

Selg det du har, gå short i New York.

Sitt med cash, sitt med cash i minimum 6 kanskje så mye som 24 eller 36 måneder.
Det vil bli masse masse fantastiske kjøpsmuligheter fremover, men ennå har ikke fallet en gang egentlig begynt.

Selg deg ut og se på fallet fra avstand.

November 03, 2007

Selg selg selg

Nedturen på børsen har bare såvidt begynt.
Vi skal ned 20-40% i løpet av 1-3 år.
Kom deg ut mens du ennå kan.
Nedturen i verdens kapitalmarkedet har bare såvidt begynt.
De nærmeste årene er det beste å sitte med cash.
Sitt med cash og vent ut markedet, forsøk å komme deg inn igjen på lave nivåer når markedet har rast fra seg.
Kjøp aksjer, fond og eiendom om 2-3-4 år når det ser ut til å bunne ut.
Følg med her på Farmann.no, vi vil kommentere nedturen fortløpende og prøve å identifisere utflatingen om noen år.
Men husk, om 2-3-4 år vil alt igjen se nattsvart ut, så det vil kreve disiplin å tørre å gå inn i markedet da.
Denne disiplinen kan du displinere deg for nå. Skriv et notat eller brev til deg selv mens du fremdeles er bullish, sett det inn i en perm og følg opp deg selv. Du vil om et år forundres over at du kunne være så bullish og naiv.

Den aller beste risikofrie renten får du ved å nedbetale gjeld, spesiellt forbrukslån og kredittkort osv.
Selg - ikke bare selg aksjer, selg dine fond også.

Den aller beste investeringen du kan gjøre er å investere i deg selv.
Bruk de nærmeste 2-3-4 årdene på å investere noe av din cash i deg selv.
Helse, kosthold, trening, massage, IPod og lydbøker, bøker på Amazon.com osv er investeringer med avkastning på mange hundre prosent.

Det er en illusjon at fondene er beskyttet, fondene skal ned minst like mye som børsen.
Selg Skagen fond, selg DnB fond, selg Acta fond. Selg og sitt med cash.

Værdens kapitalmarkeder er pumpet opp av super-money. Marginale penger som vil forsvinne og dra markedet med seg ned.
Toppen er nådd og forbi, FEDs rentesenkninger er beviset på dette.
Grådigheten råder fremdeles i markedet, frykten SKAL komme tilbake - det kan du banne på.
Dollaren er fremdeles sterk, den vil svekkes og dra USA økonomien med seg ned.

Det har allerede snudd nedover.
Ingen vet hvor lenge det likevel tilsynelatende fremdeles vil være "happy days".
Det som er sikkert er at det skal ned nå.

Du har fremdeles mulighet til å komme deg ut.

Selg selg selg selg selg selg selg.

Olav Thommessen - hvem taper?

Olav Thommessen stiller ikke til gjenvalg som nestleder for Venstre, han er ute av det sporet.

Den egentlige taperen i dette er ikke Thommessen, det er alle oss andre, du og jeg. Thommessen har forsøkt seg i business, det har vist seg å være vanskelig. Men det er slike personer vi vil ha i politikken, mennesker som ikke er politikse broilere som Sponheim men mennesker som også operer vi virkelighetens verden.

I virkeligheten er det svært vanskelig å drive business. Innimellom må man kanskje kortsiktig løse et problem med å låne 72 000 kr en kort periode, det er egentlig ikke en big deal dersom pengene er blitt betalt tilbake. I alle andre sammenhenger er det en ikke-sak. Men Thommessen blir tatt på det på grunn av de politikse ambisjonene.

Konklusjonen er at det er ekstremt vanskelig å både være forretningsmann og ha politiske ambisjoner på en gang. Om du i tillegg får en personlig knekk eller to som Thommessen har hatt med hjerneblødning og samlivsbrudd så er du ferdig.

For å klare det politiske spillet må du drive med det på heltid, slik som den uspiselige og åpenbart uredelige (ref FrP standpunktet) Sponheim gjør.

Folket får de politikerene de fortjener. Thommessen var en slik politiker som vi trengte, men folket, media og hans politiker kolegaer (og han selv) har nå fått han ut.

Folket fortjener en Sponheim, og de får en Sponheim. Trist men slik er det.

Dette er ennå en tydelig grunn til at politikernes makt må begrenses så mye som mulig, det er den værste sorts mennesker som blir politikere.

November 02, 2007

Er du kunde hos Acta eller lignende selskaper - les dette

Det er kommet nye regler om investeringsrådgivning 1 november. Dette vil ikke hjelpe mye, de værste elementene vaskes ut, men det meste blir likevel absorbert av noen få veletablerte selskaper. Kundene som bruker disse veletablerte selskapene vil for det meste bli rundlurt.

Selskaper som Acta driver for det meste med skimming av dumme kunder. Deres fees er uhorvelige og de gir stort sett blaffen i hvordan det egentlig går med dine investeringer. Størsteparten av deres såkallte "investerinsrådgivere" er færske tullebukker uten kunnskap eller erfaring, de er kun ute etter max fees og selger deg gjerne et drittprodukt om de har høyeste fee på det. Selgeren vil aldrig bruke mer tid på deg en absolutt nødvendig og vil selge deg det første du napper på.

Du bør være ekstremt aktsom med å ha med disse selskapene og rådgiverene å gjøre.

Regel nummer en: Aldrig bruk en "investeringsrådgiver" som får kommisjon på salg av "produkter". Du bør heller betale 1000 kr per time for en dyktig uavhengig rådgiver.

Regel nummer to: Bruk alltid minst to forskjellige uavhengige investeringsrådgivere og samenlign deres råd.

Regel nummer tre: Dersom din investeringsrådgiver ikke setter seg skikkelig inn i din situasjon og dine mål før dere setter i gang så ikke benytt denne investeringsrådgiveren.

Regel nummer fire: Unngå fond, "strukturerte produkter" og ligndende. Som hovedregel kjøp aksjer, verdipapirer og eiendom direkte selv, og diversifiser. Når du kjøper en aksje i StatoilHydro på Oslo børs betaler du det samme som Goldman Sachs, Warren Buffet og de andre store aktørene. Å eie samme aksjer gjennom andre i fond og struturerte lureprodukter er kun satt opp for å skimme deg for fees.

Du bør uansett lese denne artikkelen om valg av investeringsrådgier:

Kort grei innføring i markedet

Anbefales på det sterkeste å se denne videoen på 8 minutter.
Den forklarer hva som skjer på markedet på rett frem engelsk.