Obama 57% – McCain 38% – Most likely, the next President is Obama

Intrade now predicts the chance of the next president beeing Obama is  57%.
McCain is down to 38% and Clinton is down to 6%.

So, first, forget about Clinton.
Most likely, most likely, the next President of the USA is Obama.
Prepare for that.
Act now.

Read up on what this means.

He says he will end the war, but does he have the guts to actually get that done?
He will spend more money, there will be more inflation in the US.
The USD will deteriorate further.
He might be in for 8 years.
The Democrats will have full control.
There will be a positive energy outburst of confidence in US minority groups, perhaps even in Africa.
There will probably be a wave of confidence and optimism overall in the US as Obama is perceived with positive energy. This might last a year of two, will it counter the recession and the housing bust?
After a year or two, it will become apparent that Obama cant “solve” the situation in Iraq and that the war goes on. It will be apparent that Obama/Bernanke can’t solve the credit crisis.
There will be a huge backlash sometime in 2009/2010 when this becomes apparent.
Like the Republicans has blamed the Democrats, Obama will blame the Republicans… yawn…

If this backlash coincides in time with a new wave of panic in the credit markets, the post-Oplympic crash of China, and say another wild card event… it could be brewing up for a perfect storm. Let’s hope not. But I am not very optimistic.

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