Going Forward

We are in a US recession.
Recession will spread to Europe and Asia.
Recession will decrease demand for commodities.
There are still bubbles, question is where? It is in commodities.
Commodities are in a bubble that will blow, sometime as the recession sets in.
Commodities will take a double hit and fall dramatically.
A hit from falling demand, and the popping bubble.
Oil will fall back below USD 100.
Investors will flee from oil and other commodities.
Investors will flee from commodity based economies and currencies.
Investors love the oil pumped Norwegian Krone now, they will flee.
The Norwegian stock market will take a double hit, oil fall and krone fall.
Gold will fall in the recession, there will be a good time to buy.
Gold will eventually come back up and go to 3000, but that is later.
The recession will be long, 2-4+ years.
Is this the big deflation of fiat money? The BIG ONE? This is to early to tell, probably not.
Technology will steam ahead making underlying sound changes.
The iPhone/Google infrastructure will create fortunes.
Capital will be reallocated massively, this takes time.
Capital reallocation is basically sound, painful sound creative destruction.
Capital reallocation will be more here and now focused, making a buck here, now, today.
The economy will come out somewhat better, but far from cured from fiat money.
Expect massive new environmental regulations.
New capital investments will be delayed.
Housing will be in a rut for years and years.
Until people have forgotten the idea that real estate always go up.
Americans will become more humble.
Some people might even be ready to read and think for themselves, most will not.
Question is if Americans will be humiliated.
Question is if Americans will accept their humbling circumstances, or become more aggressive.
Question is if America will be more focused on quality of life, or if America will continue to harden.
Culture, music, arts, film will change, this is all part of the reallocation.
People will loose confidence eventually, this is the time to start buying.
The rich will fortify themselves.
The rich / poor division will increase.
Crime will go up.
Wall street will be humiliated.
New York will move out of fashion.
The simple life in the country will be back in vogue.
London real estate pumped up by global fiat money hubris will plunge.
Interest rates going down in this recession, but up long term.
Upwards move in interest rated will decrease capitalization rates of all asset values.
The values of stuff, almost everything, are going down, they where never real anyway.
Capital assets will be cheap.
Luxury will be cheap, think 5 start hotel bargains.
The FED will eventually inflate again, it has to or loose it’s independence.
Capital will flow in creative new ways.
There will be new bubbles.
Bubbles will come in new sectors.
Where? To early to tell, you might spot it when something goes 100%+ in a year or two.The Asian miracle will for sure create new bubble opportunities.
New technologies like nano, bio-engineering etc might well create new bubbles.
China will take a huge, huge, post Olympics plunge.

On the positive side:

People will find new exciting things to do, we will be surprised.
Globalization will continue for quite a while spreading prosperity.
Massive investments in R&D during this boom will pay off in the years ahead.
Asia will rise, spreading prosperity.
New technology will improve economic efficiency.
New technology will increase the division of labor.

For you:

Low cost is power.
Cash is king.

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