Norwegian Triple Hit

Sept. 4 Hans Lysglimt

Oil falling towards USD 100 should produce a rally, but it does not. It is the recession setting in. Oslo’s index fell below 400 again yesterday. We have predicted that we will see the 200 numbers, if not in 2008 then in 2009. No one else is predicting this massive of a fall. We see the combination of a massive world wide slowdown togheter with falling commodities prices and finally a bias for Norwegian Kroner turning into a bias against Norwegian Kroner giving Norway a triple hit. If, or when, Oslo falls below 200, everyone will claim to have predicted it. It is the curse of Austrian Economists to be joined by dozens of mee-too’s once the predcitions based on the business cycle come true. Austrian economist are very seldom given the credit they are due. Austrians do however have the most fun, every day, that is the payoff.

War with Iran changes all of the above. We will then see oil towards 200-300-400 dollars per barrel and Oslo stock exchange will go to the moon lifted by Staoil. That is why Statoil at some time will be a good buy, there is plenty upside but limited downside. We might reccomend buying Staoil once we see most of the downside gone, not yet.

Our bet on Sarah Palin having to give up did not pay. It was a 1% chance of making 100 times our money. We like those kind of bets, when the odds are that spectacular. But this time it did not pay off, neither did going long on Romney.

Congratulations to Ron Paul for a well done Rally For The Repubic. The videos are now online and well worth watching. Let us hope that Ron Pauls strategy with his Campaign For Liberty pays off. 2007 and 2008 was a great year for getting the issues on the table. Let us hope the awarness stays with us for some time.

We listened to John Strand, the telecom analyst on Tuesday. He’s got a great grip on the telecom industry.
First he turned out to be right about Telia paying too much for Chess communications. They overpaid and can not make the investment pay now.
He predicts that the big players will get more focused and slower, less inovative and will need to buy up innovation by way of smaller companies. It should thus be possible to sell interesting telecom startups for cash. Forget about going public for the next few years, focus on selling out for cash.
The important thing according to Strand is to focus extremely on your part in the value chain and contribute there.

From our friend Henrik Alexandersson in Sweden we see that the EU is about to regulate blogging. You will need to register to blogg. The snare is closing in.

Oslo, Norway. Sept. 4. 2008 Hans Lysglimt

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2 Trackbacks

  • By Again: Norwegian Triple Hit on 16 September, 2008 at 12:41 pm

    […] Oslo is going under 300, we will see the 200 numbers. Read “Norwegian Triple Hit” again. […]

  • By Østerrisk Økonomi on 3 October, 2008 at 7:58 am

    […] Så sent som 4 september 2008 skrev vi at vi forventet en trippel hit i Norge. Internasjonal nedgang. Lavere oljepris. Flykt fra kroner. Dette er nå skjedd, ganske slik som vi har forventet. […]