Rocky Bottom

Bailout bill or no bill?
Of course the bill will pass eventually, the power elite look after themselves.
Remember, all of them will get back into real life eventually.
Who will they meet at the golf course 20 years from now? Joe Average, footing the bill, or Mr. Billionaire who preserves his fortune with the bill.
Who’s sonn is his daughter more likely to marry?
And so on.
The “haves” and the rich in the US are now a class of it’s own. Of course they look after each other.

This is material enough for a revloution in it’s own right.
I do not think America in it’s present form can survive. It will have to change or collapse.
Question is when, that is a timing question.
And timing is perhaps the hardest thing of all, ask any stock market trader. Timing…
The problem with revolutions is that they ususally do not turn out the way YOU want them.
They might bring about change, but most likely not YOU KIND OF CHANGE.

The bailout bill is socialization in a massive scale.
The US looses all moral authority in economic questions, this is as sad as it goes.

The bill will pass.
There will be a rally in financials.
There will be a rally to dollars.
The rally will soon end.
There will be a new decline.
The decline will continue.
Husing will continue downwards.
The global central banks will cut interest rates down towards 1%.
There will be a rally from that.
There will be more bailout bills, 700 billion ain’t enough.
The new bailouts will pass more easily “it’s only another 400 billion” etc etc.
The total cost will reach 1-5 trillion.
The new money will eventually create inflation.
When, how much and how? No one can really tell.
It is already inflation when housing does not fall down to it’s natural level.
There will be new inflationary preassure in the economy, it is time to start looking out for it.
Where will the new money find it’s way first? Worth analyzing.
Long term yelds will rise.
Capitalizations will decrease. The value of stuff and shares will go down.
The markets will anticipate this and send shares lower for a long time.
The downwards slope has just gotten started.
Trouble will spread to Europe.
The Europeans will resist bailouts more than the US.
The Euro will hold up better long term than the dollar, relatively speaking.
The ECB will however eventually have to give in as well.

New money in massive quantities.
Massive inflation ahead.
Take measures to gaind and protect yourself.

Oslo, Norway. Oct 2. 2008 Hans Lysglimt

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